26 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Jaguares vs Llaneros Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria
Referee: Jairo Londono, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Jaguares 1-0 Llaneros.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Jaguares, 28% draw, 31% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jaguares at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jaguares97%Draw3%Llaneros0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Malagon
11'
12'
A. Moralez
45+3'
J. Castilla
🔁W. De La Rosaout: D. Lopez
46'
54'
F. Castaneda
58'
🔁J. Ramirezout: B. Chury
58'
🔁J. Castillaout: Kelvin Osorio
🔁J. Mejiaout: J. Beltran
58'
65'
D. Quintero
⚽A. Renteria (pen)
66'
69'
🔁R. Romana Garavitoout: J. Loaiza
69'
🔁F. Castanedaout: J. Contreras
77'
Jhon Vasquez
🔁Jopitoout: R. R. Colpa Bolano
78'
82'
A. Moralez
82'
A. Moralez
🔁J. Malagonout: C. Henao
84'
🔁J. Yanezout: F. A. Gil Mosquera
84'
89'
🔁M. Sierraout: C. Cortes
J. Beltran
90+3'
J. Franco
90+6'

Match stats — Jaguares vs Llaneros

54%Possession46%
12Shots13
3On target3
5Corners8
1.44xG0.84

Goals against chances

Jaguares1 from 1.44 xGabout what the chances were worth
Llaneros0 from 0.84 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jaguares
  • 12Franklin MosqueraG
  • 4Juan FrancoD
  • 6Jonathan LoveraD
  • 3Jerson MalagónD
  • 18Luis JiménezD
  • 32Jose YanezM
  • 21Rafael BustamanteM
  • 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
  • 10Cristian AlvarezM
  • 9Johar MejíaM
  • 11Andrés RenteríaF
Substitutes
  • 17Darwin LopezF
  • 16Johan BeltránF
  • 5Royscer ColpaM
  • 29Carlos HenaoD
  • 20Faber Andrés GilF
  • 1Diego MartínezG
  • 24Santiago CubidesF
  • 2Andrés Felipe Alfonso CiprianM
  • 30Ronal PérezM
Coach: Julio Mendez
Llaneros
  • 22Roameth RomañaG
  • 4Juan PertuzD
  • 26Dennys QuinteroD
  • 23Alejandro MoralezD
  • 16Jhojan EscobarD
  • 6Marlon SierraM
  • 10Neider OspinaM
  • 8Juan RamirezM
  • 13Juan CastillaM
  • 32Frank CastañedaM
  • 95Jhon VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 20Brandon ChuryM
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
  • 12Juan LoaizaG
  • 70Joel ContrerasF
  • 9Carlos CortésF
  • 3Víctor VidalD
  • 94Jimmy MedrandaD
  • 31Emilio PardoD
Coach: Alberto Sandoval Galindo Wilmer

Form going into Jaguares vs Llaneros

Jaguares

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Santa Fe22 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
  • W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
  • L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026

Llaneros

Primera A

  • L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Jaguares1934121737-2013
12Llaneros197392124-324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Llaneros

  • 9 March 2026Llaneros 2–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 24 April 2024Jaguares 1–1 LlanerosCopa Colombia
  • 10 April 2024Llaneros 2–2 JaguaresCopa Colombia
  • 30 March 2023Jaguares 1–0 LlanerosCopa Colombia
  • 15 March 2023Llaneros 1–1 JaguaresCopa Colombia

Leading scorers: Jaguares and Llaneros

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería123

Llaneros

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jaguares beat Llaneros 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Jaguares at 41%. The goal: A. Renteria (penalty) 66' for Jaguares. Sent off: A. Moralez (Llaneros) 82'. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jaguares a 69.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 56.1% after a win, 76.1% after a draw, 85.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.1%, 13.3 points lower than before the match.

For Llaneros the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 6.1% going in: 15.3% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jaguares v Llaneros has moved

First published on 12 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Jaguares's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Jaguares win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Llaneros win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.