AS Roma vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% AS Roma, 23% draw, 12% Cagliari — fair odds of 1.54, 4.35 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AS Roma vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95P. GolliniG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 77E. LulliM
- 4B. CristanteM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 61N. PisilliM
- 20N. MolinaM
- 18M. SouléF
- 9S. CastroF
- 43WesleyD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 2D. RenschD
- 14D. MalenF
- 22HermosoD
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 63Alessandro Di NunzioM
- 70G. De MarziG
- 78Mandjou CamaraF
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 28Y. SugawaraM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 4A. RomanoM
- 14A. DeiolaM
- 33A. ObertM
- 39A. FaderaM
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 19Y. TrepyF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 22R. KoflerD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 70D. MaldiniF
- 79Y. MassolinM
- 31P. MendyF
Form going into AS Roma vs Cagliari
AS Roma
Serie A
- D3-3away to Napoli24 October 2026
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
Cagliari
Serie A
- L0-2Bologna24 October 2026
- L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Cagliari
AS Roma and Cagliari have met 7 times in the records we hold, AS Roma has won 5 of them to Cagliari's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
AS Roma won the last one 4–2 on 27 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 |
| Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 Oct 2026
Serie AAS Roma 4–2 Cagliari - 9 Feb 2026
Serie AAS Roma 2–0 Cagliari - 7 Dec 2025
Serie ACagliari 1–0 AS Roma - 16 Mar 2025
Serie AAS Roma 1–0 Cagliari - 18 Aug 2024
Serie ACagliari 0–0 AS Roma - 5 Feb 2024
Serie AAS Roma 4–0 Cagliari - 8 Oct 2023
Serie ACagliari 1–4 AS Roma
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AS Roma's attack rates 119% above Cagliari's, and AS Roma concede 28% fewer than Cagliari. That gives AS Roma the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Cagliari
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Roma beat Cagliari 4–2. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M'Bala Nzola (penalty) 10' for Cagliari, Emanuele Lulli 15' for AS Roma, Niccolò Pisilli 21' for AS Roma, Daniel Maldini 81' for Cagliari, Rodrigo Mora 85' for AS Roma, Donyell Malen 87' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 2.96–2.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AS Roma a 33.6% chance to win the league: 35.1% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Cagliari the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.3% going in: 4.2% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 10.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.0%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AS Roma v Cagliari has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 59% / 26% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 65% / 23% / 12%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- AS Roma win65%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Cagliari win12%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.