Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportes Tolima 0-1 Deportivo Pasto.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Deportes Tolima, 27% draw, 18% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Deportes Tolima at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 33Jherson MosqueraD
- 71Yordan OsorioD
- 5Juan MeraD
- 20Junior HernándezD
- 80Brayan RoviraM
- 14Homer MartinezM
- 8Ever ValenciaM
- 9Luis SandovalM
- 28Edwar LópezM
- 24Adrián ParraF
- 10Luis SánchezM
- 7Jorge HurtadoF
- 30Shean BarbosaD
- 18Kelvin FlorezF
- 11Jader ValenciaF
- 13Miguel OrtegaG
- 3Jan ÁnguloD
- 12Geovanni BangueraG
- 33Mateo GaravitoD
- 2Fainer TorijanoD
- 5Nicolas Gil UribeD
- 3Joyce OssaD
- 10Diego ChávezM
- 8Enrique SerjeM
- 25Franco LeysM
- 15Harrinson MancillaM
- 7Jonathan PerlazaM
- 16Mayer GilF
- 18Joider MicoltaM
- 19Patrick PreciadoF
- 17John MéndezF
- 6Santiago JiménezD
- 36Julián QuiñonesD
- 32Matías PisanoM
- 24Kevin SantacruzM
- 29Santiago CórdobaF
- 13Luis MarquínezG
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
Primera A
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
Deportivo Pasto
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Atletico Nacional23 October 2026
- L0-1Alianza Valledupar20 October 2026
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pasto failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 27 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
- 13 May 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 9 May 2026Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 11 April 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 July 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 28 January 2025Deportes Tolima 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 3 October 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Deportes TolimaCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo Pasto won 1–0 at Deportes Tolima. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportes Tolima at 55% and given a win for Deportivo Pasto 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: E. C. Serje Orozco 33' for Deportivo Pasto. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Tolima a 32.5% chance to finish in the top eight: 43.3% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 23 points lower than before the match.
For Deportivo Pasto the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 84.6% going in: 63.7% after a win, 84.0% after a draw, 90.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.7%, 20.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 53% / 28% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 27% / 18%: the biggest move is Deportes Tolima's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Deportes Tolima win55%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Deportivo Pasto win18%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.