27 October 2026, 01:05 UTC

Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin, Bogota
Referee: C. Ortega
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Santa Fe 2-1 Bucaramanga.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Santa Fe, 30% draw, 26% Bucaramanga — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santa Fe at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santa Fe7%Draw92%Bucaramanga1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. Fagundez
31'
47'
C. Romana
H. Rodallega
55'
63'
F. Sambueza
67'
🔁F. Sambuezaout: K. Londono
67'
🔁F. Charrupiout: L. Flores
🔁J. Obrianout: O. Fernandez
69'
🔁E. Rodriguezout: L. Palacios
69'
I. R. Scarpeta Silgado
73'
80'
⚽L. Ponsassist: E. Batalla
E. Olivera
83'
🔁J. Torresout: A. Zapata
85'
🔁D. Torresout: K. D. Toscano Bassa
85'
85'
🔁E. Batallaout: N. Castrillon
87'
P. Peirano
🔁M. Puertaout: M. Lovera
88'
89'
🔁L. Ponsout: M. Rea
89'
🔁A. Gutierrezout: A. Zarate
⚽L. Palaciosassist: F. Fagundez
90+3'

Match stats — Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

46%Possession54%
18Shots9
6On target3
4Corners3
1.24xG0.65

Goals against chances

Santa Fe2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bucaramanga1 from 0.65 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 12Weimar AsprillaG
  • 13Helibelton PalaciosD
  • 18Emanuel OliveraD
  • 15Ivan ScarpetaD
  • 4Mateo PuertaD
  • 77Jader ObrianM
  • 16Daniel TorresM
  • 7Jhojan TorresM
  • 25Emerson RodríguezM
  • 11Hugo RodallegaF
  • 9Franco FagúndezF
Substitutes
  • 8Omar FernándezF
  • 14Luis Angel PalaciosF
  • 10Alexis ZapataM
  • 6Kilian ToscanoF
  • 17Maximiliano LoveraF
  • 31Juan EspitiaG
  • 43Jean CaicedoD
  • 21Ewil Murillo RenteriaM
  • 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
Bucaramanga 3-4-3
  • 25Cristopher FiermarínG
  • 24José OrtizD
  • 23Carlos RomañaD
  • 4José GarcíaD
  • 19Aldair GutiérrezM
  • 21Felix CharrupíM
  • 22Fabry CastroM
  • 8Freddy HinestrozaM
  • 10Fabián SambuezaF
  • 27Luciano PonsF
  • 17Emerson BatallaF
Substitutes
  • 28Leonardo FloresM
  • 7Kevin LondoñoM
  • 6Nilson CastrillónD
  • 3Martín ReaD
  • 20Aldair ZárateF
  • 16Luis MatheusG
  • 80Omar AlbornozD
  • 9Brandon CaicedoF
  • 5Adrián MurilloF

Form going into Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

Santa Fe

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Jaguares22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
  • L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026

Bucaramanga

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Chico23 October 2026
  • D1-1America de Cali18 October 2026
  • D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
  • W3-1Junior4 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bucaramanga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bucaramanga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Bucaramanga.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Santa Fe1910453018+1234
4Bucaramanga199823117+1435

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

  • 28 March 2026Bucaramanga 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
  • 9 December 2025Santa Fe 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 19 November 2025Bucaramanga 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
  • 10 August 2025Bucaramanga 2–1 Santa FePrimera A
  • 19 March 2025Santa Fe 1–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 28 August 2024Bucaramanga 3–1 Santa FeCopa Colombia

Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Bucaramanga

Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rodallega173
  • F. Fagúndez105
  • N. Bustos105

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santa Fe beat Bucaramanga 2–1. The model had made a win for Santa Fe its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Fagundez 31' for Santa Fe, L. Pons 80' for Bucaramanga, L. Palacios 90+3' for Santa Fe. Sent off: C. Romana (Bucaramanga) 47', P. Peirano (Bucaramanga) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santa Fe a 98.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.8% after a win, 97.9% after a draw, 94.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Bucaramanga the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 2.1% going in: 5.9% after a win, 1.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.