28 October 2026, 01:05 UTC

Chico vs Junior Primera A prediction & result

Estadio La Independencia, Tunja
Referee: D. Ulloa
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Chico 1-1 Junior.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Chico, 29% draw, 44% Junior — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Junior at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chico4%Draw93%Junior3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Alomia
24'
57'
J. Rios
⚽J. Alomiaassist: C. Blanco Betancur
62'
63'
🔁C. Barriosout: B. Castrillon
63'
🔁D. Caicedoout: J. Canchimbo
63'
🔁Y. Charaout: K. Perez
🔁S. Viverosout: S. Salazar
65'
🔁J. Pimentelout: D. A. Ramirez Raigosa
71'
75'
🔁G. Paivaout: L. Muriel
75'
🔁G. Celisout: J. Rivas
S. Salazar
82'
84'
⚽J. Rivas
🔁A. Mayaout: J. C. Palacios
85'
🔁S. Navarroout: C. Mosquera
85'
🔁E. Sarriaout: I. Camargo
85'
89'
S. Viera
90+5'
B. Castrillon

Match stats — Chico vs Junior

46%Possession54%
18Shots5
3On target3
10Corners4
0.85xG0.33

Goals against chances

Chico1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth
Junior1 from 0.33 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chico 4-4-2
  • 1David AgudeloG
  • 15Sander NavarroD
  • 2Daniel PolancoD
  • 5Jhonier AlomíaD
  • 14Cristian BlancoD
  • 17Estiven SarriaM
  • 28Jesús CárdenasM
  • 20Sebastián ViverosM
  • 16Santiago MeraM
  • 22Alejandro MayaF
  • 21Jacobo PimentelF
Substitutes
  • 8Sebastian SalazarM
  • 11Delio RamírezM
  • 18Junior PalaciosD
  • 24Cristián MosqueraM
  • 9Isaac CamargoF
  • 12Branndon ZapataG
  • 10Yesus CabreraM
  • 19Jeronimo PimentelM
  • 29Luis Carabalí CarreraF
Junior 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mauro SilveiraG
  • 34Daniel SocarrasD
  • 98Jermein PeñaD
  • 5Daniel RiveraD
  • 26Yeison SuárezD
  • 14Juan David RíosM
  • 28Guillermo CelisM
  • 77Cristian BarriosM
  • 8Yimmi CharáM
  • 25Déiber CaicedoM
  • 9Guillermo PaivaF
Substitutes
  • 88Bryan CastrillónF
  • 18Kevin PérezF
  • 21Joel CanchimboF
  • 22Jesús RivasM
  • 10Luis MurielF
  • 30Jefersson MartínezG
  • 23Pablo OrtízD
  • 38Andrés SchmalbachM
  • 80Fabián ÁngelM

Form going into Chico vs Junior

Chico

Primera A

  • W1-0Bucaramanga23 October 2026

Junior

Primera A

  • W1-0Águilas Doradas24 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Chico195591529-1420
14Junior195772627-122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chico vs Junior

  • 8 February 2026Junior 3–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 2 August 2025Junior 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 19 February 2025Chico 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
  • 22 July 2024Junior 2–1 ChicoPrimera A
  • 28 January 2024Chico 2–2 JuniorPrimera A
  • 20 September 2023Chico 2–1 JuniorPrimera A

Leading scorers: Chico and Junior

Chico

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Junior

GoalsAssists

  • L. Muriel163

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chico and Junior drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Junior at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Alomia 62' for Chico, J. Rivas 84' for Junior. Sent off: S. Viera (Junior) 89'. On expected goals it finished 0.85–0.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chico a 37.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.5% after a win, 35.3% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.3%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Junior the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.4% going in: under 1% after a win, 5.0% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.0%.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.