1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC

Cuiaba vs São Bernardo Serie B prediction & result

Arena Pantanal
Referee: Charly Wendy Straub Deretti
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Cuiaba 1-2 São Bernardo.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cuiaba, 29% draw, 31% São Bernardo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cuiaba at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cuiaba0%Draw4%São Bernardo96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Fabrício Danielassist: Lucas Fernandes
17'
Marcão Silva
⚽Calebeassist: David Miguel de Souza Arcanjo
45+2'
•Calebe
45+5'
45'
🔁Jemersonout: Helder Maciel
56'
🔁Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopesout: Felipe Garcia
56'
🔁Fabrício Danielout: Daniel Davi Simão Roque
58'
⚽Daniel Davi Simão Roqueassist: Lucas Fernandes
65'
🔁Lucas Fernandesout: Breno Ruan Melo Almeida
🔁Jean Dias da Costaout: Eliel Chrystian
70'
🔁Raul Lô Gonçalvesout: Guilherme De Almeida Mansano
70'
🔁Vinicius Peixotoout: Nathan Cruz da Silva Rosa
70'
🔁Igorout: Pedro Carminatti Jacomin
78'
81'
🔁Foguinhoout: João Vitor Rodrigues Galdino
🔁Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmoout: Eric Almeida de Melo
86'
87'
🔁Helder Macielout: Augusto

Match stats — Cuiaba vs São Bernardo

57%Possession43%
20Shots9
5On target5
6Corners3
1.2xG1.27

Goals against chances

Cuiaba1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
São Bernardo2 from 1.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
  • 1João CarlosG
  • 13João BassoD
  • 5CalebeD
  • 4Vitor MendesD
  • 2Igor InocêncioM
  • 30RaulM
  • 20David MiguelM
  • 36LorenzoM
  • 41KauanM
  • 77Jean DiasM
  • 29Vinicius PeixotoF
Substitutes
  • 91LuisãoD
  • 99Nathan Cruz da Silva RosaF
  • 23Marcos JúniorM
  • 11ElielF
  • 53WeversonM
  • 26Joao SilvaD
  • 39Guilherme MansanoF
  • 14EricD
  • 97Luiz OtávioM
Coach: Eduardo Barros
São Bernardo 3-4-3
  • 1Alex AlvesG
  • 77MarcãoD
  • 35JemersonD
  • 90LuizãoD
  • 21Hugo SanchesM
  • 8FoguinhoM
  • 14Lucas LimaM
  • 6ParáM
  • 31Lucas FernandesF
  • 10Fabrício DanielF
  • 29PedrinhoF
Substitutes
  • 27EchaporãF
  • 9Felipe GarciaF
  • 42HyoranM
  • 22Léo LangG
  • 33Mário SérgioD
  • 97AugustoD
  • 3HélderD
  • 30BreninhoM
  • 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
Coach: Vinícius Bergantin

Form going into Cuiaba vs São Bernardo

Cuiaba

Serie B

  • L0-1away to America Mineiro26 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Londrina20 October 2026

São Bernardo

Serie B

  • W3-2Vila Nova24 October 2026
  • L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cuiaba381114133433+147
11São Bernardo381411135444+1053

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs São Bernardo

  • 12 July 2026São Bernardo 2–2 CuiabaSerie B

The result against the call

São Bernardo won 2–1 at Cuiaba. The model had leaned towards a win for Cuiaba at 40% and given a win for São Bernardo 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabrício Daniel 14' for São Bernardo, Calebe 45+2' for Cuiaba, Daniel Davi Simão Roque 58' for São Bernardo. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.27.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.