31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Sudtirol vs Cesena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Marco Druso, Bolzano
Referee: Davide Di Marco
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sudtirol 1-1 Cesena.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sudtirol, 30% draw, 27% Cesena — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sudtirol at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sudtirol4%Draw93%Cesena3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fabio Rispoliassist: Simone Tronchin
23'
Simone Tronchin
37'
🔁Federico Daviout: Simone Davì
45'
49'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
59'
🔁Matteo Guidiout: Dimitri Bisoli
59'
🔁Antonio Fioriout: Maat Daniel Caprini
🔁Rares Burneteout: Kevin Zeroli
63'
🔁Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopesout: Aljosa Vasic
63'
65'
⚽Cristian Shpendiassist: Dimitri Bisoli
69'
Gianluca Frabotta
🔁Giacomo Stabileout: Davide Veroli
70'
72'
🔁Massimiliano Mangravitiout: Jacopo Gelli
72'
🔁X. Druiventakout: Luca D'Andrea
🔁Kenny Meddy Mixturout: Alvin Okoro
80'
83'
🔁Emil Bohinenout: Matteo Francesconi
86'
Mihajlo Ilic
90+3'
Matteo Francesconi

Match stats — Sudtirol vs Cesena

46%Possession54%
16Shots25
5On target7
2Corners4
1.43xG2.97

Goals against chances

Sudtirol1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cesena1 from 2.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sudtirol 5-4-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 79S. MolinaD
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 27G. StabileD
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 11Vasco LopesM
  • 10Fabio RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 9R. BurneteM
  • 25K. MixturF
Substitutes
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 24S. DavìD
  • 32T. LauretiG
  • 90A. OkoroF
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 80Elias SchrootM
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 12Rok VadjunecG
  • 14A. VasicM
Coach: D. Possanzini
Cesena 4-3-3
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 18M. GuidiM
  • 14X. DruiventakF
  • 9C. ShpendiF
  • 80A. FioriF
Substitutes
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 16L. D'AndreaF
  • 11M. CapriniF
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 8M. FrancesconiM
  • 75Filippo GalvagnoF
  • 4J. GelliD
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti

Form going into Sudtirol vs Cesena

Sudtirol

Serie B

  • L0-2away to Padova27 October 2026
  • D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026

Cesena

Serie B

  • W2-1Empoli27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sudtirol113621312+115
11Cesena113621214-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Cesena

  • 6 April 2026Cesena 1–1 SudtirolSerie B
  • 25 October 2025Sudtirol 0–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 5 April 2025Sudtirol 1–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 3 November 2024Cesena 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 25 April 2021Sudtirol 1–1 CesenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 9 January 2021Cesena 0–0 SudtirolSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Cesena

Sudtirol

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sudtirol and Cesena drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sudtirol at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabio Rispoli 23' for Sudtirol, Cristian Shpendi 65' for Cesena. On expected goals it finished 1.43–2.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sudtirol a 8.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.5%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For Cesena the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.9% going in: 20.3% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.4%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sudtirol v Cesena has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 48% / 29% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Sudtirol's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Sudtirol win43%▼ −5
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Cesena win27%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.