1 November 2026, 21:30 UTC

Novorizontino vs Operario-PR Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte
Referee: Andre Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Novorizontino 2-1 Operario-PR.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Novorizontino, 20% draw, 15% Operario-PR — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Novorizontino at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Novorizontino97%Draw3%Operario-PR0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas
8'
20'
Miranda
Luís Oyama
21'
33'
Vinícius Diniz Dall Antonia
⚽Nicolas Morês da Cruz
34'
⚽Matheus Henrique Bianquiassist: Sander
38'
🔁Luís Oyamaout: Leonardo Naldi de Matos
45'
45'
🔁Mirandaout: Leonardo Erig Daitx
🔁Robsonout: Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito
45'
45'
🔁Gabriel Feliciano da Silvaout: Brenno
51'
⚽Josephassist: Dudu
63'
Joseph
🔁Nicolas Morês da Cruzout: Diego Galo
64'
65'
🔁Índioout: André
Carlinhos
67'
70'
🔁Duduout: Aylon
79'
Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodrigues
80'
🔁Onitlasi Júnior de Moraes Rodriguesout: Nicolas Schulz
🔁Francisco Reidiney Duarte Gomesout: Juninho
82'
90+3'
Alberto Valentim do Carmo Neto
90+5'
Leonardo Erig Daitx
🔁Matheus Henrique Bianquiout: Marlon
90+6'
Diego Galo
90+8'

Match stats — Novorizontino vs Operario-PR

46%Possession54%
26Shots4
7On target1
8Corners0
1.55xG0.39

Goals against chances

Novorizontino2 from 1.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
Operario-PR1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
  • 93JordiG
  • 2MadsonD
  • 3CarlinhosD
  • 4PatrickD
  • 5SanderD
  • 17Matheus BianquiM
  • 6Luis OyamaM
  • 41ReidineyM
  • 10RomuloM
  • 30Nicolas CarecaM
  • 11RobsonF
Substitutes
  • 9CarlãoF
  • 50JuninhoM
  • 31CésarG
  • 19Diego GaloM
  • 16ViníciusF
  • 24J. LoraD
  • 7Ronald BarcellosF
  • 18Léo NaldiM
  • 8C. OrtízF
Coach: Enderson Moreira
Operario-PR 4-2-3-1
  • 1Elias Martello CurzelG
  • 22J. CuenúD
  • 43JosephD
  • 16MirandaD
  • 26MaguinhoD
  • 27Gabriel FelicianoM
  • 5ÍndioM
  • 28DuduM
  • 20Vinícius DinizM
  • 6MoraesM
  • 99Caio DantasF
Substitutes
  • 11AylonF
  • 18AndréD
  • 21BrennoM
  • 32CharlesM
  • 4KlausD
  • 2Mikael DokaD
  • 88Neto ParaíbaM
  • 33VagnerG
  • 19Leonardo Erig DaitxF
Coach: Alberto Valentim

Form going into Novorizontino vs Operario-PR

Novorizontino

Serie B

  • W1-0away to Atletico Goianiense24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026

Operario-PR

Serie B

  • W1-0Athletic Club MG23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Novorizontino38211076732+3573
10Operario-PR38169135150+157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Operario-PR

  • 12 July 2026Operario-PR 2–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 15 April 2026Operario-PR 1–1 NovorizontinoCopa Sul-Sudeste
  • 12 October 2025Novorizontino 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 23 June 2025Operario-PR 2–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
  • 9 November 2024Novorizontino 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
  • 24 July 2024Operario-PR 0–0 NovorizontinoSerie B

Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Operario-PR

Novorizontino

GoalsAssists

  • Robson165
  • Romulo119
  • Matheus Bianqui70

Operario-PR

GoalsAssists

  • Boschilia134
  • Vinícius Diniz71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Novorizontino beat Operario-PR 2–1. The model had made a win for Novorizontino its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Nicolas Morês da Cruz 34' for Novorizontino, Matheus Henrique Bianqui 38' for Novorizontino, Joseph 51' for Operario-PR. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 69.3% chance to win the league: 77.8% after a win, 56.1% after a draw, 32.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.8%, 8.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.