Gagra vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Gagra 2-2 Rustavi.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Gagra, 32% draw, 44% Rustavi — fair odds of 4.17, 3.13 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rustavi at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gagra vs Rustavi
Line-ups
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 22G. SadghobelashviliD
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 40ClaudineiD
- 6M. TsintsadzeM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 25WandersonM
- 7P. BorgesD
- 9D. MujiriF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 10L. KekelidzeM
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 21P. BeruashviliG
- 27M. KapanadzeD
- 24I. IakobidzeD
- 3V. PatsatsiaD
- 2S. AndghuladzeD
- 22Y. NakanoM
- 8K. KakashviliM
- 5Kevin William CeijasF
- 9JeanF
- 7K. S. AbdulM
- 20L. ParkadzeM
- 40D. UbilavaD
- 25Kakha TskhadadzeD
- 35J. RolandG
- 10P. OseiF
- 11S. KessiF
- 18N. JaparidzeF
- 13A. GujabidzeM
- 23M. GambošM
- 19N. ChikovaniD
Form going into Gagra vs Rustavi
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0away to Spaeri23 October 2026
- L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gagra | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gagra vs Rustavi
- 27 October 2026Gagra 2–1 RustaviDavid Kipiani Cup
- 22 August 2026Rustavi 3–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2026Gagra 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 15 March 2026Rustavi 1–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 1 November 2021Gagra 2–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
- 10 September 2021Rustavi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga 2
The result against the call
Gagra and Rustavi drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rustavi at 44% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Vazha Patsatsia 10' for Rustavi, Viktor Bliznichenko 36' for Gagra, alexander feikrishvili 71' for Gagra, prince osei 90+1' for Rustavi.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gagra a 96.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 91.4% after a win, 96.1% after a draw, 98.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 96.1%.
For Rustavi the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 7.2% going in: 11.1% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 2.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.8%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Gagra v Rustavi has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 23% / 31% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 24% / 32% / 44%: the biggest move is Rustavi's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Gagra win24%▲ +1
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Rustavi win44%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.