31 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee: Andrea Calzavara
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sampdoria 2-0 Virtus Entella.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sampdoria, 31% draw, 36% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Virtus Entella at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Yari Verschaerenout: Lorenzo Mezzotero
17'
19'
Francesco Mezzoni
⚽Andrea Tiritiello (OG)
23'
31'
Luca Vignali
Manuel Cicconi
32'
33'
Bernat Guiu
36'
🔁M. Alborghettiout: Ivan Marconi
⚽Lorenzo Mezzoteroassist: Tjas Begic
42'
45+2'
Ivan Marconi
45'
🔁Niccolo Squizzatoout: Lucas Felippe
45'
🔁Leonardo Benedettiout: Luigi Cuppone
68'
🔁M Tirelliout: Giacomo Corona
77'
🔁Francesco Mezzoniout: Tommaso Annoni
🔁Gennaro Tutinoout: Yann Karamoh
81'
🔁Lorenzo Mezzoteroout: Luca Ravanelli
90'
Kevin Mbabu
90+2'

Match stats — Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella

38%Possession62%
6Shots13
3On target3
4Corners2
0.86xG0.8

Goals against chances

Sampdoria2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
Virtus Entella0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sampdoria 4-3-3
  • 12Andrey KrastevG
  • 43K. MbabuD
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 7M. CicconiD
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 11T. BegićF
  • 99G. TutinoF
  • 16Y. VerschaerenF
Substitutes
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 94S. EspositoM
  • 44Gerald DonegàM
  • 38K. DiopD
  • 10L. InsigneF
  • 14Yann KaramohF
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 39L. MezzoteroF
  • 13L. RavanelliD
Coach: L. D'Angelo
Virtus Entella 3-5-2
  • 22F. Del FrateG
  • 94F. MezzoniD
  • 6A. TiritielloD
  • 27M. AlborghettiD
  • 8L. VignaliM
  • 24A. FranzoniM
  • 5N. SquizzatoM
  • 80L. BenedettiM
  • 26Stefano Di MarioM
  • 17M. TirelliF
  • 11Bernat GuiuF
Substitutes
  • 18T. AnnoniM
  • 40Gabriele CostaM
  • 10L. CupponeF
  • 3N. PrevitaliD
  • 16R. TuricchiaM
  • 12E. TorrielliG
  • 39M. MotoleseD
  • 15I. MarconiD
  • 70Marwane KrittaD
Coach: A. Chiappella

Form going into Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella

Sampdoria

Serie B

  • L0-2away to Ascoli27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026

Virtus Entella

Serie B

  • D1-1Avellino27 October 2026
  • L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sampdoria113261118-711
16Virtus Entella112451114-310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sampdoria vs Virtus Entella

  • 16 January 2026Sampdoria 1–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 17 October 2025Virtus Entella 3–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 3 August 2023Sampdoria 3–1 Virtus EntellaFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Sampdoria beat Virtus Entella 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Virtus Entella at 36% and given a win for Sampdoria 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andrea Tiritiello (own goal) 23' for Sampdoria, Lorenzo Mezzotero 42' for Sampdoria. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sampdoria a 64.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 55.3% after a win, 66.5% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.3%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

For Virtus Entella the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.6% going in: 11.5% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 20.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.2%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sampdoria v Virtus Entella has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Sampdoria's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Sampdoria win33%▼ −3
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Virtus Entella win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.