Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-1 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Atletico Mineiro, 29% draw, 33% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense
Atletico Mineiro
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
- W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
Fluminense
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
- W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Fluminense
- 21 March 2026Fluminense 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 4 October 2025Fluminense 3–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 11 May 2025Atletico Mineiro 3–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 September 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–0 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 18 September 2024Fluminense 1–0 Atletico MineiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 25 August 2024Atletico Mineiro 0–2 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Fluminense
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.