Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Delfin SC 3-1 Deportivo Cuenca.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Delfin SC, 31% draw, 32% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Delfin SC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21B. HerasG
- 77B. HernándezD
- 32A. BedoyaD
- 33A. CisnerosD
- 14E. ZúñigaD
- 34G. HerediaM
- 18J. MorochoM
- 55M. ReyesM
- 10Danny Gabriel Luna MoránM
- 50T. OzaetaM
- 39Edison Caicedo Peralta EberF
- 31Jefferson Stalin Arce MinaM
- 3D. AimarD
- 51C. BangueroD
- 16L. CastroM
- 23L. CornejoM
- 22J. CárdenasG
- 70E. EspinozaM
- 8K. MorenoM
- 80B. PeñaD
- 1F. FerreroG
- 16J. MejiaD
- 6S. PostelD
- 3G. NardelliD
- 37C. ArboledaD
- 28P. BoolsenM
- 8É. VegaM
- 7Lucas Eduardo MancinelliM
- 30M. MaccariM
- 19Melvin Fabricio Díaz CanenciaM
- 88C. BenalcazarF
- 18I. PiedraD
- 43J. OrdoñezF
- 2Ignacio Ariel Mosquera ArroyoD
- 12Ethan Gabriel Minda HumananteG
- 25Marcos Andrés López CabreraD
- 29M. KlimowiczF
- 23E. GuevaraD
- 49David GonzálezM
- 20B. GarcíaM
Form going into Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
Liga Pro
- L0-4away to Orense SC24 October 2026
- W4-2Manta FC18 October 2026
- W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
Deportivo Cuenca
Liga Pro
- W2-0away to Manta FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Tecnico Universitario16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Delfin SC | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 38 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
- 31 May 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 22 February 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 6 December 2025Deportivo Cuenca 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 1 November 2025Delfin SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 13 July 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 16 March 2025Delfin SC 0–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
GoalsAssists
- F. Ayunta111
Deportivo Cuenca
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Delfin SC beat Deportivo Cuenca 3–1. The model had made a win for Delfin SC its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jeremy Mejía 3' for Deportivo Cuenca, Anthony Bedoya Caicedo 20' for Delfin SC, Leao Santiago Tenorio Medina 80' for Delfin SC, Danny Luna 85' for Delfin SC. Sent off: Carlos Arboleda (Deportivo Cuenca) 45+1'. On expected goals it finished 1.93–0.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Cuenca a 61.9% chance to win the league: 76.6% after a win, 61.0% after a draw, 50.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.7%, 11.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Delfin SC v Deportivo Cuenca has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 39% / 32% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Deportivo Cuenca's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Delfin SC win37%▼ −2
- Draw31%▼ −1
- Deportivo Cuenca win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.