Emelec vs Leones del Norte Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Emelec 0-2 Leones del Norte.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Emelec, 29% draw, 31% Leones del Norte — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Emelec at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Emelec vs Leones del Norte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. OrtízG
- 80O. HerreraD
- 27F. LeónD
- 2A. LeguizamónD
- 30Madison Ariel Mina IbarraD
- 6V. GriffithM
- 5A. MinaM
- 19J. RuízM
- 21J. CevallosM
- 59Reixon SayaM
- 7L. KlimowiczF
- 4E. SeguraD
- 10F. PizziniF
- 8G. NápoliM
- 13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
- 11S. ArceM
- 17J. AyovíF
- 9R. CarrilloF
- 3I. GuerricoD
- 1Mario Alfredo Valero SánchezG
- 45M. RamírezG
- 7M. LuqueD
- 23N. MonserratD
- 2J. MoránD
- 34S. PortocarreroD
- 5T. CoppoM
- 11M. CaramutoM
- 6Emiliano GriffaM
- 29P. MaderoM
- 99C. SolanoM
- 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
- 16M. de la CruzD
- 8C. VelezM
- 19O. PepinosM
- 25B. KreimanD
- 14A. RosalesD
- 50Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioD
- 22J. ArroyoG
- 17T. AmiliviaF
- 32A. AguasD
Form going into Emelec vs Leones del Norte
Emelec
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Guayaquil City FC25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leones del Norte18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
Leones del Norte
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Libertad25 October 2026
- L1-3Emelec18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Libertad9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Emelec vs Leones del Norte
- 18 October 2026Leones del Norte 1–3 EmelecLiga Pro
- 30 August 2026Emelec 2–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 3 May 2026Leones del Norte 2–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 8 October 2025Leones del Norte 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
Leading scorers: Emelec and Leones del Norte
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Leones del Norte
GoalsAssists
- Juan Luis Anangonó León111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leones del Norte won 2–0 at Emelec. The model had leaned towards a win for Emelec at 40% and given a win for Leones del Norte 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Luque 44' for Leones del Norte, M. Luque 86' for Leones del Norte. On expected goals it finished 1.14–1.11.