1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas Liga Pro prediction & result

Quito
Referee: Russell Macario Teran Leon
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Universidad Catolica Quito 1-2 Aucas.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Universidad Catolica Quito, 25% draw, 19% Aucas — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad Catolica Quito at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universidad Catolica Quito0%Draw6%Aucas94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Facundo Martinez
25'
⚽Luis Johan Morenoassist: Saenddy Said Yánez Zambrano
27'
45+1'
⚽Andres Mena
45'
🔁Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgadoout: Ariel García
45'
🔁Thiago Serpaout: B. Oyola
57'
🔁Ayrton Preciadoout: Cristhoper Zambrano
🔁Saenddy Said Yánez Zambranoout: José Fajardo
64'
🔁Andrés Rodríguezout: Daniel Clavijo
64'
🔁Facundo Martinezout: Mauro Díaz
64'
🔁Jimmy Evansout: Eddy Mejia
65'
71'
🔁Rafael Monti Azpiazúout: Luis Arroyo
🔁Azarias Londonoout: Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
73'
78'
Agostino Spina
79'
🔁Alex Rodrigo Zova Cacierraout: Maverick Vera
Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
85'
89'
⚽Luis Arroyoassist: Cristhoper Zambrano
Daniel Clavijo
90+1'
Mauro Díaz
90+2'
90+2'
Andres Mena

Match stats — Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas

56%Possession44%
12Shots11
6On target4
4Corners3
0.48xG0.83

Goals against chances

Universidad Catolica Quito1 from 0.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aucas2 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universidad Catolica Quito 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas Cueva GordilloG
  • 24Darwin Carlos Nazareno ArroyoD
  • 33L. CangáD
  • 3Jose GarcíaD
  • 14Jhostin David Mina HerreraD
  • 15L. MorenoM
  • 10F. MartínezM
  • 9A. LondoñoM
  • 23Alex Andrés Rodríguez ReascosM
  • 11J. EvansM
  • 26Foad EidF
Substitutes
  • 32M. AlonsoM
  • 5J. CacciabueM
  • 8D. ClavijoF
  • 28M. DíazM
  • 17R. TroyaM
  • 19M. SevillanoM
  • 18B. PalaciosF
  • 30E. MejíaM
  • 37C. MedinaD
Coach: D. Martínez
Aucas 4-4-2
  • 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
  • 37A. ZovaD
  • 16L. GustavinoD
  • 2S. MoralesD
  • 31B. CarabalíD
  • 10A. PreciadoM
  • 6A. SpinaM
  • 5ThiagoM
  • 18Andrés David Mena MontenegroM
  • 21P. GuzmánF
  • 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
Substitutes
  • 34M. CarcelénM
  • 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
  • 7J. AndradeF
  • 1I. ChavesG
  • 20D. EspinosaF
  • 63A. GarciaD
  • 30B. OyolaF
  • 57M. VeraF
  • 17C. ZambranoF
Coach: N. Araujo

Form going into Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas

Universidad Catolica Quito

Liga Pro

  • D0-0away to Independiente del Valle23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
  • L0-1Macara11 October 2026

Aucas

Liga Pro

  • L0-4Barcelona SC25 October 2026
  • D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Universidad Catolica Quito361412105635+2154
5Aucas36159124042-254

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas

  • 3 September 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
  • 9 May 2026Aucas 2–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 3 August 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 6–2 AucasLiga Pro
  • 16 April 2025Aucas 2–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 7 March 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 0–0 AucasCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 9 November 2024Universidad Catolica Quito 3–2 AucasLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica Quito and Aucas

Universidad Catolica Quito

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fajardo133
  • M. Alonso84

Aucas

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aucas won 2–1 at Universidad Catolica Quito. The model had leaned towards a win for Universidad Catolica Quito at 56% and given a win for Aucas 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Johan Moreno 27' for Universidad Catolica Quito, Andres Mena 45+1' for Aucas, Luis Arroyo 89' for Aucas. Sent off: Mauro Díaz (Universidad Catolica Quito) 90+2', Andres Mena (Aucas) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.48–0.83.

How the call on Universidad Catolica Quito v Aucas has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Universidad Catolica Quito's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Universidad Catolica Quito win56%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Aucas win19%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.