Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Levante.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Deportivo La Coruna, 25% draw, 27% Levante — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo La Coruna at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Leo RománG
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 22B. EdeD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 19Luismi CruzM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 10PekeF
- 32B. NsongoF
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 37NoéM
- 17AngeliñoD
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 36YayoM
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 11David MellaF
- 4L. NoubiD
- 13M. RyanG
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 4DelaD
- 3Ifeanyi NdukweD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 18E. BardeliM
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 6RequeM
- 7BruguiF
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 24T. FernándezF
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 27Paco CortésF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 36I. GaldinG
- 2A. MandiD
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 10P. RatkovF
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
Levante
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Sevilla12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
- 25 January 2025Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 LevanteSegunda División
- 24 October 2024Levante 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 27 January 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–2 LevanteLa Liga
- 26 August 2017Levante 2–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 March 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 7 November 2015Levante 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo La Coruna and Levante drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo La Coruna at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bil Nsongo 63' for Deportivo La Coruna, Daniel Requena Sánchez 82' for Levante. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo La Coruna a 7.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.0% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.9%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
For Levante the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.0% going in: 9.3% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.6%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo La Coruna v Levante has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Deportivo La Coruna's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Deportivo La Coruna win48%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Levante win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.