Villarreal vs Elche La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 0-0 Elche.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Villarreal, 21% draw, 18% Elche — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Elche
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 3A. FreemanD
- 8J. FoythD
- 2Logan CostaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 11Ilias AkhomachM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 16C. MaciaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
- 18P. GueyeM
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 24N. SalibaM
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 47J. MorcilloD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 18T. LemarM
- 24A. OsorioF
- 21L. CepedaF
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 17JosanM
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 9E. PonceF
- 5F. RedondoM
- 22Rubén SánchezD
Form going into Villarreal vs Elche
Villarreal
La Liga
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
Elche
La Liga
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Elche
- 8 March 2026Villarreal 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Elche 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 February 2023Elche 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 September 2022Villarreal 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 16 January 2022Elche 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 22 September 2021Villarreal 4–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Elche
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Villarreal and Elche drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Villarreal at 61% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 2.23–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Villarreal a 19.0% chance to finish in the top four: 20.2% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.4%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
For Elche the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.1% going in: 18.7% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 27.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Villarreal v Elche has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 61% / 21% / 18%: the biggest move is Villarreal's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Villarreal win61%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −3
- Elche win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.