17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result

RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
Referee: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Espanyol 0-1 Atletico Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Espanyol, 27% draw, 48% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Madrid at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Espanyol0%Draw3%Atletico Madrid97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Morten Hjulmand
43'
Lee Kang-In
45'
🔁Ademola Lookmanout: Julián Álvarez
45'
🔁Daniel Martinez Morenoout: Alejandro Grimaldo
55'
🔁Pablo Barrios Rivasout: Marcos Llorente
62'
🔁Lee Kang-Inout: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
🔁Vanja Drkusicout: Unai Núñez
64'
66'
Cristian Romero
67'
🔁Cristian Romeroout: Rodrigo Mendoza
68'
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
🔁Eduardo Expósito Jaénout: Álex Calatrava Torrado
73'
🔁Francisco Javier Hernandez Coarasaout: Gabriel Moscardo
73'
79'
Rodrigo Mendoza
Roger Hinojo
81'
🔁Bryan Zaragozaout: Javi Puado
82'
🔁Roberto Fernández Jaénout: Marcos Fernández
82'
Unai Núñez
87'
89'
⚽Alejandro Baena Rodríguezassist: Julián Álvarez

Match stats — Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

29%Possession71%
10Shots19
2On target6
4Corners12
0.61xG1.41

Goals against chances

Espanyol0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico Madrid1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Espanyol 5-4-1
  • 1Ángel FortuñoG
  • 23O. El HilaliD
  • 16V. DrkušićD
  • 5C. RiedelD
  • 6L. CabreraD
  • 21Roger HinojoD
  • 28Javier HernandezM
  • 8Edu ExpósitoM
  • 10Pol LozanoM
  • 15Bryan ZaragozaM
  • 9Roberto FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 26Rafel BauzàM
  • 22Álex CalatravaM
  • 13M. DmitrovićG
  • 24T. DolanF
  • 18Marcos FernándezF
  • 4Urko GonzálezM
  • 2GorosabelD
  • 3Q. HartmanD
  • 11Pere MillaM
Coach: Manolo González
Atletico Madrid 4-3-1-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 30Dani MartínezD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 8Pablo BarriosM
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 7Lee Kang-InM
  • 15J. DavidF
  • 11A. LookmanF
Substitutes
  • 46J. CastilloM
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 10Álex BaenaM
  • 19J. ÁlvarezF
  • 3O. VargasM
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 9A. SørlothF
  • 16Arnau OrtizF
  • 1J. MussoG
Coach: D. Simeone

Form going into Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Espanyol

La Liga

  • D1-1away to Malaga9 October 2026

Atletico Madrid

La Liga

  • W2-1away to Alaves10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Espanyol123361314-112
3Atletico Madrid129122310+1328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

  • 21 February 2026Atletico Madrid 4–2 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 17 August 2025Espanyol 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 29 March 2025Espanyol 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 28 August 2024Atletico Madrid 0–0 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 24 May 2023Espanyol 3–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 6 November 2022Atletico Madrid 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga

The full Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid record →

Leading scorers: Espanyol and Atletico Madrid

Espanyol

GoalsAssists

  • Roberto Fernández60

Atletico Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Baena53
  • G. Simeone42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Madrid won 1–0 at Espanyol. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atletico Madrid at 48%. The goal: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 89' for Atletico Madrid. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Espanyol a 16.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.7% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 18.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Atletico Madrid the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 84.4% going in: 87.2% after a win, 83.3% after a draw, 80.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Espanyol v Atletico Madrid has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 25% / 27% / 48%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Espanyol win25%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Atletico Madrid win48%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.