Valencia vs Athletic Club La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 0-0 Athletic Club.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Valencia, 30% draw, 34% Athletic Club — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valencia at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Athletic Club
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 5César TárregaD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 18PepeluM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 19Dani RabaM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 10H. ElliottM
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 27David OtorbiF
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 39R. SatoM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 1Unai SimónG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 11Gorka GuruzetaF
- 17YuriD
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 33Christian ImgaF
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 21Maroan SannadiF
Form going into Valencia vs Athletic Club
Valencia
La Liga
- D2-2away to Racing Santander11 October 2026
Athletic Club
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Londrina13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Goias6 October 2026
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Athletic Club
- 10 May 2026Athletic Club 0–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 4 February 2026Valencia 1–2 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
- 20 September 2025Valencia 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Valencia 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 28 August 2024Athletic Club 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 20 January 2024Valencia 1–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Leading scorers: Valencia and Athletic Club
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valencia and Athletic Club drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Valencia at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valencia a 28.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.5% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 28.8%.
For Athletic Club the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.6% going in: 3.7% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.3%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.