Leganes vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 0-1 Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Leganes, 28% draw, 35% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Leganes at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 23Álvaro TejeroM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 11Naim GarcíaM
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 17Ismaël GharbiM
- 19P. SokoF
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 9Álex MillánF
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 24A. DiawaraM
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 31Nico LozanoG
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 1Iker ÁlvarezG
- 30Daniel BudescaD
- 5Juan GutiérrezD
- 4Álex MartínD
- 3Dani TasendeD
- 28Eder GarcíaM
- 8Isma RuizM
- 14Adnane GhailanM
- 23Cristian CarracedoF
- 9PercanF
- 11Diego BriF
- 21Carlos AlbarránD
- 6D. CaceresM
- 24S. El JebariF
- 38Borja García CriadoM
- 16Rubén AlvesD
- 20Nélson MonteD
- 27Egoitz MuñozD
- 18Enol RodríguezF
- 19Ibai SanzF
Form going into Leganes vs Cordoba
Leganes
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Almeria11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
Cordoba
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026
- W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
What these results say
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 10 | Cordoba | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Cordoba
- 14 February 2026Cordoba 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 7 December 2025Leganes 0–0 CordobaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Cordoba
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan63
- Eder García42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cordoba won 1–0 at Leganes. The model had leaned towards a win for Leganes at 37% and given a win for Cordoba 35%. The goal: Eder Garcia 83' for Cordoba. Sent off: Álvaro Morata (Leganes) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 0.79–2.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leganes a 31.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.3% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 37.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.9%, 6 points higher than before the match.
For Cordoba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.1% going in: 19.1% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 29.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.1%, 6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Leganes v Cordoba has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Cordoba's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Leganes win37%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cordoba win35%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.