26 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result

Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Referee: Patrik Kolaric
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Istra 1961 2-2 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 44% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Istra 19613%Draw93%HNK Hajduk Split4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Khalil Fayadassist: Dennis Hadzikadunić
13'
Dennis Hadzikadunić
Demirel Hodzic
30'
Hamza Jaganjac
39'
39'
Michele Šego
Gustavo Albarracin
51'
54'
⚽Michele Šegoassist: Khalil Fayad
🔁Vinko Rozicout: Nik Skafar Zuzic
60'
🔁Demirel Hodzicout: Matija Kablar
60'
🔁Isaac Aguiar Tomichout: Dukan Ahmeti
60'
⚽Hamza Jaganjacassist: Emil Frederiksen
66'
69'
🔁Dario Marešićout: Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Matija Kablar
70'
76'
🔁Abdoulie Sanyangout: Carlos Martín Domínguez
76'
🔁Mathieu Acapandieout: Roko Gabric
⚽Emil Frederiksen (pen)
81'
83'
🔁Marin Šotičekout: Adam Huram
83'
🔁Dalisson De Almeida Leiteout: Leander Dendoncker
🔁Gustavo Albarracinout: Mutari Momoh
89'

Match stats — Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

44%Possession56%
13Shots14
4On target6
4Corners4
1.59xG1.48

Goals against chances

Istra 19612 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Hajduk Split2 from 1.48 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Istra 1961 4-4-2
  • 1F. KolićG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 13Niko ŠepićD
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 5D. HodzicM
  • 25G. AlbarracínM
  • 7V. RozićM
  • 94H. JaganjacF
  • 9IsaacF
Substitutes
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicF
  • 23S. UkichM
  • 40J. Paus-KunštG
  • 66M. MomohD
  • 97A. KadušićD
  • 34M. KablarM
  • 11S. GoričanF
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 39T. BrajkovicF
Coach: Javier Cabello
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 15D. MarešićD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9DaliM
  • 23M. ŠotičekM
  • 11M. ŠegoF
Substitutes
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 18L. DendonckerM
  • 3Roko GabrićD
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 77Carlos MartínF
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 44D. StipicaG
Coach: Gonzalo García

Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

Istra 1961

HNL

  • L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

HNL

  • W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Istra 1961135442419+519
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 9 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 7 April 2026Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 25 January 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 19 October 2025Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 3 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
  • 23 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen115
  • H. Jaganjac52
  • D. Ahmeti34

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Khalil Fayad 7' for HNK Hajduk Split, Michele Šego 54' for HNK Hajduk Split, Hamza Jaganjac 66' for Istra 1961, Emil Frederiksen (penalty) 81' for Istra 1961. On expected goals it finished 1.59–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Istra 1961 a 17.7% chance to finish in the top four: 22.2% after a win, 18.4% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.4%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For HNK Hajduk Split the question was the chance to win the league, 28.1% going in: 31.7% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 23.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.2%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.