31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee: Filip Dragasevic
Full time5 – 0

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 5-0 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% HNK Hajduk Split, 26% draw, 14% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split99%Draw1%HNK Gorica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Jakov Filipović
⚽Adam Huramassist: Mathieu Acapandie
22'
⚽Abdoulie Sanyangassist: Carlos Martín Domínguez
33'
•Abdoulie Sanyang
33'
⚽Carlos Martín Domínguez
38'
45'
🔁Ante Ercegout: Patrik Mijic
⚽Carlos Martín Domínguezassist: Adam Huram
50'
59'
Ivan Cvijanović
59'
🔁Jakov Pranjićout: Ante Kavelj
59'
🔁Juraj Friganout: Ognjen Bakic
Abdoulie Sanyang
63'
🔁Mathieu Acapandieout: Luka Hodak
64'
🔁Abdoulie Sanyangout: Andelo Šutalo
64'
🔁Adam Huramout: Marin Šotiček
64'
🔁Simun Hrgovicout: Dario Melnjak
68'
⚽Andelo Šutalo
70'
73'
🔁Domagoj Pavičićout: Fran Brodić
🔁Carlos Martín Domínguezout: Etnik Brruti
75'
84'
🔁Tom Lacouxout: Hadji Moustapha
Dennis Hadzikadunić
90'

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

59%Possession41%
13Shots4
7On target1
4Corners5
2.13xG0.31

Goals against chances

HNK Hajduk Split5 from 2.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilićG
  • 22M. AcapandiéD
  • 6D. HadžikadunićD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32Š. HrgovićD
  • 20Alberto del MoralM
  • 18L. DendonckerM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 10M. LivajaM
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 77Carlos MartínF
Substitutes
  • 8K. FayadM
  • 99D. FesyukG
  • 3Roko GabrićD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 11M. ŠegoF
  • 23M. ŠotičekM
Coach: Gonzalo García
HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. JosipovićG
  • 2F. BrautD
  • 32J. FilipovićD
  • 15D. StevanovićD
  • 34I. CvijanovićD
  • 66Juraj FriganM
  • 6T. LacouxM
  • 25B. BogojevićM
  • 24D. PavičićM
  • 8J. PranjićM
  • 50A. ErcegF
Substitutes
  • 10F. BrodićF
  • 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
  • 18B. KardumF
  • 36Ante KaveljM
  • 71D. MatijašG
  • 9P. MijićF
  • 21H. MoustaphaD
  • 45S. PerićD
  • 30D. ŽarkovG
Coach: M. Carević

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

HNK Hajduk Split

HNL

  • D2-2away to Istra 196126 October 2026
  • W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
  • W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026

HNK Gorica

HNL

  • D0-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
  • L1-2Rudes9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629
10HNK Gorica131481025-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica

  • 16 August 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 12 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 31 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 24 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 10 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 11 May 2025HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

HNK Gorica

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bogojević40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split beat HNK Gorica 5–0. The model had made a win for HNK Hajduk Split its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Adam Huram 22' for HNK Hajduk Split, Abdoulie Sanyang 33' for HNK Hajduk Split, Carlos Martín Domínguez 38' for HNK Hajduk Split, Carlos Martín Domínguez 50' for HNK Hajduk Split, Andelo Šutalo 70' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 2.13–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Hajduk Split a 22.4% chance to win the league: 24.3% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.3%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For HNK Gorica the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 36.7% going in: 28.1% after a win, 33.3% after a draw, 38.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.9%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.