NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 0-2 Istra 1961.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% NK Slaven Belupo, 27% draw, 33% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Slaven Belupo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30K. SentićG
- 18F. KrušeljD
- 4D. KovačićD
- 15J. MersinajD
- 77I. UrataD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 14Losika RatshukuduM
- 10M. CaimacovM
- 11J. MitrovićM
- 8L. BanovecF
- 88D. BosakM
- 24L. BošnjakM
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 23A. JónssonM
- 29Lovro LoncaricF
- 16Domagoj MaltarD
- 2V. MeđimorecD
- 45V. PapacF
- 12M. PavliG
- 1F. KolićG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 66M. MomohD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 13Niko ŠepićD
- 25G. AlbarracÃnM
- 5D. HodzicM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 27D. CelijaF
- 39T. BrajkovicF
- 11S. GoričanF
- 9IsaacF
- 34M. KablarM
- 97A. KadušićD
- 4R. KumarD
- 40J. Paus-KunštG
- 7V. RozićF
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL
- W2-1away to NK Varazdin24 October 2026
- L1-5Dinamo Zagreb18 October 2026
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
Istra 1961
HNL
- D2-2HNK Hajduk Split26 October 2026
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
- 15 August 2026Istra 1961 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 May 2026Istra 1961 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 27 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 November 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 12 September 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 28 April 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Istra 1961 won 2–0 at NK Slaven Belupo. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Slaven Belupo at 40% and given a win for Istra 1961 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mohamed Nasraoui 71' for Istra 1961, Isaac Aguiar Tomich 90+4' for Istra 1961. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Slaven Belupo a 7.8% chance to finish in the bottom one: 5.0% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Istra 1961 the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.6% going in: 21.5% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.