25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs Rudes HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Referee: Mateo Erceg
Full time0 – 1

Final score: NK Osijek 0-1 Rudes.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% NK Osijek, 23% draw, 22% Rudes — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Osijek at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek0%Draw6%Rudes94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Domagoj Bukvicout: Ivan Dolček
24'
27'
Saad El Haddad
•Ivan Dolček
40'
🔁Niko Farkasout: Balazs Bakti
45'
57'
Slavko Bralić
60'
🔁Saad El Haddadout: Jurica Poldrugac
60'
🔁Junior Fernandesout: Cherno Saho
60'
🔁Vid Seitzout: Lenny Ilecic
🔁Luka Tunjicout: Ivan Barić
62'
75'
Ivan Đorić
78'
🔁Noa Skokoout: Luka Popovic
🔁Admir Ljatifiout: Alejandro Cantero
78'
🔁Marcel Heisterout: David Kalem
78'
81'
⚽Cherno Saho
85'
🔁Bruno Unusicout: Filip Taraba
87'
Filip Taraba

Match stats — NK Osijek vs Rudes

67%Possession33%
13Shots13
3On target4
7Corners3
0.62xG1.89

Goals against chances

NK Osijek0 from 0.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Rudes1 from 1.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 98Izak JežićD
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
  • 39D. BukvićM
  • 11Luka TunjicM
  • 30A. LjatifiM
  • 79A. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 9I. BarićF
  • 99BaleloF
  • 21CanteroF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 7I. DolčekF
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 24L. PosavecD
Coach: Fede Bessone
Rudes 3-4-2-1
  • 95L. RogićG
  • 42M. ZebićD
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 29S. BralićD
  • 2B. UnušićM
  • 24I. ĐorićM
  • 37N. SkokoM
  • 27Felipe CurcioM
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 88S. El HaddadM
  • 78J. FernándesF
Substitutes
  • 1Filip HoljevacG
  • 7L. IlečićF
  • 14T. KolegaF
  • 34K. LovrićF
  • 33J. PejicF
  • 11J. PoldrugačM
  • 8Luka PopovicM
  • 19Cherno SahoF
  • 44F. TarabaD
Coach: A. Peternac

Form going into NK Osijek vs Rudes

NK Osijek

HNL

  • D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
  • L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026

Rudes

HNL

  • L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3NK Osijek136252218+420
8Rudes135171627-1116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs Rudes

  • 8 August 2026Rudes 1–6 NK OsijekHNL
  • 5 April 2024Rudes 2–3 NK OsijekHNL
  • 27 January 2024NK Osijek 2–0 RudesHNL
  • 7 October 2023NK Osijek 3–0 RudesHNL
  • 30 July 2023Rudes 3–4 NK OsijekHNL
  • 26 October 2021Rudes 0–2 NK OsijekCup

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and Rudes

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León61
  • N. Omerović50

Rudes

No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rudes won 1–0 at NK Osijek. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Osijek at 55% and given a win for Rudes 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Cherno Saho 81' for Rudes. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Osijek a 29.4% chance to finish in the top four: 32.3% after a win, 25.2% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

For Rudes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom one, 53.6% going in: 45.5% after a win, 52.6% after a draw, 56.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.5%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Osijek v Rudes has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 58% / 23% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is NK Osijek's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. NK Osijek win55%▼ −3
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Rudes win22%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.