20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Doncaster vs Stockport County League One prediction & result

Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Doncaster 0-2 Stockport County.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Doncaster, 28% draw, 43% Stockport County — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stockport County at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Doncaster0%Draw1%Stockport County99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Owen Bailey
21'
Grant McCann
34'
49'
Jack Diamond
53'
⚽Mamadou Jobe
58'
⚽Oliver Norwood (pen)
59'
⚽Kyle Woottonassist: Oliver Norwood
60'
🔁Lewis Bateout: Lewis Fiorini
60'
🔁Ben Osbornout: Josh Cogley
🔁Brandon Hanlanout: Will Keane
62'
🔁jay mcgrathout: Hakeeb Adelakun
67'
🔁Alfie Mayout: Isaac Hutchinson
67'
70'
🔁Kyle Woottonout: Mikael Mandron
70'
🔁Ryan Gloverout: Ethan Ennis
🔁George Broadbentout: Darren Robinson
76'
🔁Leon Ayindeout: Harry Clifton
76'
80'
🔁Jack Diamondout: Adama Sidibeh
Darren Robinson
90+1'

Match stats — Doncaster vs Stockport County

33%Possession67%
4Shots17
1On target5
2Corners6
0.22xG3.35

Goals against chances

Doncaster0 from 0.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
Stockport County2 from 3.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Doncaster 3-4-2-1
  • 1Tommy SimkinG
  • 27S. GrehanD
  • 12N. ByrneD
  • 6J. McGrathD
  • 11L. AyindeM
  • 22R. GottsM
  • 8G. BroadbentM
  • 25B. McCannM
  • 4O. BaileyM
  • 10A. MayM
  • 9B. HanlanF
Substitutes
  • 20D. RobinsonM
  • 32Jake OramG
  • 18W. KeaneF
  • 21I. HutchinsonM
  • 15H. CliftonM
  • 47H. AdelakunF
  • 39P. LincolnD
Coach: G. McCann
Stockport County 3-4-3
  • 1Oliver WhatmuffG
  • 25M. JobeD
  • 6E. O'ConnellD
  • 5E. PyeD
  • 15R. GloverM
  • 4L. BateM
  • 10O. NorwoodM
  • 23B. OsbornM
  • 7J. DiamondF
  • 19K. WoottonF
  • 16H. WoodF
Substitutes
  • 20J. AdigunM
  • 9B. AndréssonF
  • 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
  • 30Ethan EnnisF
  • 18L. FioriniM
  • 22M. MandronF
  • 29Adama SidibehF
Coach: J. McNulty

Form going into Doncaster vs Stockport County

Doncaster

League One

  • L1-2away to Leicester17 October 2026

Stockport County

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Bromley17 October 2026
  • W3-1Barnsley10 October 2026
  • W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Doncaster133371422-812
2Stockport County159242915+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Doncaster vs Stockport County

  • 8 August 2026Stockport County 1–1 DoncasterLeague Cup
  • 3 March 2026Doncaster 0–1 Stockport CountyEFL Trophy
  • 29 December 2025Stockport County 4–2 DoncasterLeague One
  • 9 December 2025Doncaster 0–2 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 27 January 2024Doncaster 1–5 Stockport CountyLeague Two

Leading scorers: Doncaster and Stockport County

Doncaster

No player in League One's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Stockport County

GoalsAssists

  • K. Wootton102
  • J. Diamond63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stockport County won 2–0 at Doncaster. The model had made a win for Stockport County its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mamadou Jobe 53' for Stockport County, Kyle Wootton 59' for Stockport County. On expected goals it finished 0.22–3.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Doncaster a 29.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 22.1% after a win, 30.3% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.1%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Stockport County the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 26.8% going in: 29.7% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.7%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Doncaster v Stockport County has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is Stockport County's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Doncaster win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Stockport County win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.