20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Burton Albion vs Bradford League One prediction & result

Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Burton Albion 0-0 Bradford.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Burton Albion, 32% draw, 37% Bradford — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bradford at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burton Albion3%Draw94%Bradford3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Raphael Borges Rodrigues
44'
Curtis Tilt
51'
52'
Antoni Sarcevic
🔁Gbemi Arubiout: Matthew Dennis
61'
62'
🔁Bobby Pointonout: Stephen Humphrys
62'
🔁Jake Beesleyout: Nick Powell
🔁Caylon Vickersout: Will Collar
72'
77'
🔁Stephen Humphrysout: Kayden Jackson
Toby Sibbick
81'
84'
🔁Antoni Sarcevicout: Adam Phillips
🔁George Evansout: Jason Sraha
87'
Sulyman Krubally
88'
90+4'
Ibou Touray

Match stats — Burton Albion vs Bradford

47%Possession53%
15Shots18
3On target3
4Corners13
1.38xG1.45

Goals against chances

Burton Albion0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Bradford0 from 1.45 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
  • 34C. AddaiG
  • 6T. SibbickD
  • 12G. EvansD
  • 16C. TiltD
  • 17R. Borges RodriguesM
  • 41Sulyman KruballyM
  • 4K. ChaukeM
  • 24Harvey AraujoM
  • 18Caylon VickersM
  • 8C. WebsterM
  • 9G. ArubiF
Substitutes
  • 14W. CollarM
  • 19M. DennisF
  • 32J. KeanG
  • 10Mark O’MahonyF
  • 20J. SrahaD
  • 23Emeka AdeileD
  • 29Kain AdomF
Coach: G. Bowyer
Bradford 3-4-2-1
  • 21J. McCrackenG
  • 28M. PenningtonD
  • 15A. BaldwinD
  • 16George Christopher John PrattD
  • 27C. O'KeeffeM
  • 10A. SarcevicM
  • 6C. ConnollyM
  • 3I. TourayM
  • 24W. SwanM
  • 23B. PointonM
  • 9J. BeesleyF
Substitutes
  • 25N. PowellM
  • 8A. PhillipsM
  • 32G. LapslieM
  • 19K. JacksonF
  • 11S. HumphrysF
  • 5M. GillespheyD
  • 1C. DawsonG
Coach: M. Duff

Form going into Burton Albion vs Bradford

Burton Albion

League One

  • D2-2away to Peterborough17 October 2026

Bradford

League One

  • W2-0Stevenage17 October 2026
  • D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Burton Albion154562027-717
8Bradford13643108+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burton Albion vs Bradford

  • 21 March 2026Burton Albion 2–1 BradfordLeague One
  • 8 November 2025Bradford 1–2 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 18 October 2022Burton Albion 4–0 BradfordEFL Trophy
  • 26 January 2019Burton Albion 1–1 BradfordLeague One
  • 21 August 2018Bradford 1–0 Burton AlbionLeague One

The result against the call

Burton Albion and Bradford drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bradford at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burton Albion a 14.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 11.7% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.6%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For Bradford the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 17.9% going in: 21.7% after a win, 15.6% after a draw, 14.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.6%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burton Albion v Bradford has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 34% / 32% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 32% / 37%: the biggest move is Burton Albion's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Burton Albion win31%▼ −3
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Bradford win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.