20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bromley vs Leicester League One prediction & result

Hayes Lane, London
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Bromley 0-4 Leicester.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Bromley, 24% draw, 54% Leicester — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leicester at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bromley0%Draw1%Leicester99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽William Thomas-Alvesassist: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
7'
Samuel Charles Braybrooke
16'
⚽John Lundstramassist: Luke Thomas
George Saville
39'
45+2'
⚽Luke Thomasassist: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
Markus Ifill
45+2'
🔁Omar Sowunmiout: Michael Cheek
45'
🔁Richard Taylorout: Jodi Jones
45'
🔁corey whitelyout: Kamari Antonio Grant
45'
🔁Victor Adeboyejoout: Kamil Amadu Conteh
45'
58'
Emil Riis Jakobsen
67'
⚽Emil Riis Jakobsenassist: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
72'
🔁Samuel Charles Braybrookeout: Will Smallbone
72'
🔁Emil Riis Jakobsenout: Liam Cullen
72'
🔁Louis Pageout: Conor Chaplin
77'
🔁K. Doyleout: Bobby Reid
77'
🔁William Thomas-Alvesout: Harry Howell
🔁Adam Jacksonout: Mikel Miller
81'

Match stats — Bromley vs Leicester

25%Possession75%
8Shots16
4On target9
5Corners4
0.26xG2.35

Goals against chances

Bromley0 from 0.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
Leicester4 from 2.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bromley 4-1-4-1
  • 1G. SmithG
  • 12Marcus Lemar IfillD
  • 5O. SowunmiD
  • 45A. JacksonD
  • 3R. TaylorD
  • 6G. SavilleM
  • 18C. WhitelyM
  • 16W. HondermarckM
  • 28J. McKiernanM
  • 11M. PinnockM
  • 20V. AdeboyejoF
Substitutes
  • 10J. JonesF
  • 14N. KabambaF
  • 19M. MillerF
  • 31O. MasonG
  • 9M. CheekF
  • 22K. ContehM
  • 21Kamari Antonio GrantD
Coach: A. Woodman
Leicester 3-4-2-1
  • 29A. McCarthyG
  • 16W. O'HoraD
  • 15H. SouttarD
  • 5C. OkoliD
  • 37W. AlvesM
  • 6J. LundstramM
  • 25L. PageM
  • 33L. ThomasM
  • 36S. BraybrookeM
  • 27K. DoyleM
  • 17E. RiisF
Substitutes
  • 14B. De Cordova-ReidF
  • 20H. HowellF
  • 24I. KangasniemiD
  • 21F. RavizzoliG
  • 12W. SmallboneM
  • 11L. CullenF
  • 8C. ChaplinF
Coach: Russell Martin

Form going into Bromley vs Leicester

Bromley

League One

  • L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026

Leicester

League One

  • W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Bromley132381333-209
11Leicester135442219+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Bromley and Leicester

Bromley

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Leicester

GoalsAssists

  • E. Riis61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Leicester won 4–0 at Bromley. The model had made a win for Leicester its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: William Thomas-Alves 4' for Leicester, John Lundstram 16' for Leicester, Luke Thomas 45+2' for Leicester, Emil Riis Jakobsen 67' for Leicester. On expected goals it finished 0.26–2.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bromley a 63.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 56.3% after a win, 64.0% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.3%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Leicester the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 16.3% going in: 17.4% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.4%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bromley v Leicester has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 24% / 26% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 22% / 24% / 54%: the biggest move is Leicester's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Bromley win22%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Leicester win54%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.