20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday League One prediction & result

Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Notts County 2-0 Sheffield Wednesday.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Notts County, 30% draw, 38% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Notts County99%Draw1%Sheffield Wednesday0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
🔁Di'Shon Bernardout: Gabriel·Otegbayo
15'
Callum Slattery
Luka Smyth
34'
⚽D. Kanu (pen)
38'
Conor·Grant
45+2'
45'
🔁Callum Slatteryout: Ali Al-Hamadi
50'
Jamal Lowe
56'
🔁Barry Bannanout: Billy Mitchell
56'
🔁Reece Jamesout: Max Lowe
🔁Luka Smythout: lee ndlovu
63'
🔁Nicholas Tsaroullaout: Callum Roberts
63'
🔁Conor·Grantout: Darius Lipsiuc
71'
🔁Scott Robertsonout: Max Sanders
71'
78'
🔁Gabriel·Otegbayoout: Kieran Morrison
🔁D. Kanuout: Jack Evans
80'
⚽Darius Lipsiucassist: Rory Finneran
81'
89'
Jaden Heskey

Match stats — Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

52%Possession48%
19Shots6
4On target0
4Corners0
2.41xG0.3

Goals against chances

Notts County2 from 2.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sheffield Wednesday0 from 0.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Notts County 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. GibbonsG
  • 12L. NessD
  • 3R. McDonaldD
  • 4J. BedeauD
  • 25N. TsaroullaM
  • 27R. FinneranM
  • 20S. RobertsonM
  • 26I. Samuels-SmithM
  • 19L. SmythM
  • 11C. GrantM
  • 9D. KanuF
Substitutes
  • 6M. SandersM
  • 15J. EvansM
  • 2J. GibbonsD
  • 14D. LipsiucM
  • 10R. Longelo-MbuleM
  • 39L. NdlovuF
  • 7C. RobertsF
Coach: M. Paterson
Sheffield Wednesday 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. Maynard-BrewerG
  • 7Y. ValeryD
  • 5D. BernardD
  • 6L. CooperD
  • 33R. JamesD
  • 10B. BannanM
  • 18Jaden HeskeyM
  • 8C. SlatteryM
  • 50D. Keillor-DunnM
  • 24H. GrayM
  • 9J. LoweF
Substitutes
  • 12Ali Al HamadiF
  • 16B. MitchellM
  • 20K. MorrisonM
  • 22G. OtegbayoD
  • 3M. LoweD
  • 2L. PalmerD
  • 27C. TruemanG
Coach: H. Pedersen

Form going into Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

Notts County

League One

  • L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
  • L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026

Sheffield Wednesday

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0AFC Wimbledon17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Notts County123541314-114
5Sheffield Wednesday146532514+1123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday

  • 12 August 2014Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Notts CountyLeague Cup
  • 17 March 2012Notts County 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
  • 20 August 2011Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Notts CountyLeague One

Leading scorers: Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday

Notts County

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Notts County beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sheffield Wednesday at 38% and given a win for Notts County 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Kanu (penalty) 38' for Notts County, Darius Lipsiuc 81' for Notts County. Sent off: Jamal Lowe (Sheffield Wednesday) 50'. On expected goals it finished 2.41–0.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Notts County a 35.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 31.2% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 38.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.2%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Sheffield Wednesday the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 11.3% going in: 13.3% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Notts County win32%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Sheffield Wednesday win38%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.