Dundee vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee 2-0 Aberdeen.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dundee, 23% draw, 36% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.44, 4.35 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundee at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee vs Aberdeen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Owen GoodmanG
- 7Drey WrightD
- 4Ryan AstleyD
- 5Owen BevanD
- 3Idris OdutayoD
- 8Ryan FinniganM
- 48Ethan HamiltonM
- 27Joe BevanM
- 19Joe WestleyM
- 18Charlie ReillyM
- 15Simon MurrayF
- 10Finlay RobertsonM
- 11Ashley HayF
- 14Alan ForrestF
- 17Žan BeširM
- 2Brad HallidayD
- 13Kieran O'HaraG
- 52Charley OosenbrughD
- 58Ethan CrombieM
- 60Ryan BlandF
- 27Marius MüllerG
- 28Chris CaddenD
- 23Lewis MayoD
- 26Daniel HappeD
- 24Nesta Guinness-WalkerD
- 17Stuart ArmstrongM
- 32Aremu AfeezM
- 20Toyosi OlusanyaM
- 10Alexander BriedlM
- 7Tony YoganeM
- 15Kevin NisbetF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 9Ayoub MoulouaF
- 22Jack MilneD
- 40Findlay MarshallM
- 53Andrew FasanyaF
- 1Dimitar MitovG
- 2Nicky DevlinD
- 21Gavin MolloyD
- 48Cooper MassonM
Form going into Dundee vs Aberdeen
Dundee
- L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026
Aberdeen
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Aberdeen
- 8 August 2026Dundee 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 17 May 2026Dundee 3–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 21 February 2026Aberdeen 2–3 DundeePremiership
- 6 December 2025Dundee 1–3 AberdeenPremiership
- 5 October 2025Aberdeen 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 15 February 2025Dundee 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Aberdeen
Dundee
- J. Westley2 goals
Aberdeen
- K. Nisbet2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.