St Mirren vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 1-0 St Johnstone.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% St Mirren, 29% draw, 41% St Johnstone — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs St Johnstone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jacob ChapmanG
- 2Jayden RichardsonD
- 22Marcus FraserD
- 13Alexander GogićD
- 3Declan JohnD
- 8Ryan CarrM
- 48Paul NsioM
- 10Samuel RamosM
- 88Killian PhillipsM
- 23Chris MochrieM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 4Liam DonnellyM
- 16Luke ThomasM
- 20Jake YoungF
- 7Roland IdowuM
- 27Peter UrminskyG
- 5Richard KingD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 30Fraser TaylorM
- 32Luke DouglasF
- 1Toby StewardG
- 33Liam SmithD
- 5Zach MitchellD
- 3Cheick DiabateD
- 14Matty FouldsD
- 42Reece McAlearM
- 8Jason HoltM
- 11Sam StantonM
- 10Jamie GullanM
- 99Ruari PatonM
- 9Josh FowlerF
- 23Logan ChalmersM
- 18Kai FotheringhamF
- 17Louis LLoydF
- 20Ross SinclairG
- 15Jack BairdD
- 19Danny FinlaysonD
- 4Morgan BoyesD
- 7Taylor StevenF
- 25Macaulay TaitM
Form going into St Mirren vs St Johnstone
St Mirren
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
St Johnstone
- W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | St Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs St Johnstone
- 8 August 2026St Mirren 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 1 February 2025St Mirren 0–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 14 December 2024St Johnstone 2–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 30 October 2024St Mirren 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 24 February 2024St Mirren 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 December 2023St Johnstone 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and St Johnstone
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
- Samu1 goals2 assists
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.