Kilmarnock vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Kilmarnock, 23% draw, 24% Celtic — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kilmarnock at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. StryjekG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 14G. StangerD
- 15J. YfekoD
- 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
- 8E. RingM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. ClescencoF
- 27I. OwenF
- 5M. O'Hara
- 22J. Thomson
- 49B. RiceM
- 25E. Schilte-BrownD
- 39E. BowieD
- 1V. SinisaloG
- 2A. JohnstonD
- 20C. Carter-VickersD
- 6A. TrustyD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 27A. EngelsM
- 11C. DuranM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 13Yang Hyun-JunM
- 9K. HoghF
- 31R. DoohanG
- 49J. ForrestM
- 17S. TounektiF
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 41R. HatateM
- 14L. McCowanM
- 47D. MurrayD
- 19C. OsmandF
- 51C. DonovanD
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Kilmarnock
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Celtic
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
| 1 | Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Celtic
- 9 August 2026Kilmarnock 1–5 CelticPremiership
- 15 February 2026Kilmarnock 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 9 November 2025Celtic 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 September 2025Kilmarnock 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 12 April 2025Celtic 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 January 2025Celtic 2–1 KilmarnockFA Cup
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Celtic
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Celtic
- C. Durán3 goals3 assists
- B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
- K. Høgh3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.