23 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Newcastle vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result

Newcastle
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Newcastle, 23% draw, 29% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newcastle at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newcastle96%Draw4%Liverpool0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Elangaassist: W. Osula
5'
Y. Wissa
25'
30'
M. Kerkez
30'
J. Frimpong
L. Miley
34'
55'
⚽C. Gakpoassist: R. Gravenberch
🔁W. Osulaout: J. Willock
56'
🔁S. Steurout: J. Ramsey
56'
⚽J. Willockassist: Y. Wissa
57'
63'
🔁F. Wirtzout: A. Mac Allister
63'
🔁R. Ngumohaout: V. Munoz
J. Ramsey
65'
70'
🔁J. Jacquetout: R. Araujo
🔁L. Mileyout: A. Bamba
76'
🔁A. Elangaout: J. Murphy
76'
78'
🔁R. Gravenberchout: L. Koumas
J. Murphy
79'
90'
V. van Dijk
L. Hornicek
90+3'
🔁Y. Wissaout: F. Schar
90+5'
90'
⚽D. Szoboszlai (pen)

Match stats — Newcastle vs Liverpool

39%Possession61%
13Shots27
4On target7
2Corners6
1.42xG2.23

Goals against chances

Newcastle2 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
Liverpool2 from 2.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HornicekG
  • 37A. DedicD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 14S. SteurM
  • 67L. MileyM
  • 19A. ElangaM
  • 9Y. WissaM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 10W. OsulaF
Substitutes
  • 24E. JaouenG
  • 51L. ShaharD
  • 5F. ScharD
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 41J. RamseyM
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 17B. ToureF
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 27N. WoltemadeF
Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
  • 1AlissonG
  • 30J. FrimpongD
  • 5J. JacquetD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 8D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 38R. GravenberchM
  • 73R. NgumohaM
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 18C. GakpoM
  • 9A. IsakF
Substitutes
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 33R. AraujoD
  • 10A. Mac AllisterM
  • 3W. EndoM
  • 53J. McConnellM
  • 42T. NyoniM
  • 67L. KoumasF
  • 23V. MunozF
Coach: Andoni Iraola

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Newcastle412178-15
8Liverpool413064+26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Liverpool

  • 23 August 2026Newcastle 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 31 January 2026Liverpool 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
  • 25 August 2025Newcastle 2–3 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 16 March 2025Liverpool 1–2 NewcastleLeague Cup
  • 26 February 2025Liverpool 2–0 NewcastlePremier League
  • 4 December 2024Newcastle 3–3 LiverpoolPremier League

Leading scorers: Newcastle and Liverpool

Newcastle

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Liverpool

  • A. Isak3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.