West Brom vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% West Brom, 26% draw, 32% Burnley — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs Burnley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Max O'LearyG
- 25Nolan GalvesD
- 3Nathaniel PhillipsD
- 6George CampbellD
- 4Callum StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 8Jayson MolumbyM
- 17Ousmane DiakitéM
- 21Isaac PriceM
- 7Felix Horn MyhreF
- 11Jimmy MorganF
- 9Barney StewartF
- 20Rabby NzingoulaM
- 2Chris MephamD
- 13Matt IngramG
- 28Alex WilliamsD
- 5Krystian BielikD
- 22Conor TownsendD
- 37Oliver BostockF
- 23Tammer BanyF
- 1Max WeissG
- 22Oliver SonneD
- 2Kyle WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 6Bashir HumphreysD
- 29Josh LaurentM
- 28Hannibal MejbriM
- 10Marcus EdwardsM
- 21Aaron RamseyM
- 7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
- 27Armando BrojaF
- 14Connor RobertsD
- 8Ugo RaghouberM
- 11Zeki AmdouniF
- 12Dastan SatpaevF
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 37Grégoire CoudertG
- 15Anel AhmedhodžićD
- 4Joe WorrallD
- 31Mike TrésorF
Form going into West Brom vs Burnley
West Brom
- W2-1away to Norwich15 August 2026
Burnley
- D2-2West Ham16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs Burnley
- 23 August 2026West Brom 3–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 11 March 2025Burnley 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 7 November 2024West Brom 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 20 January 2023Burnley 2–1 West BromChampionship
- 2 September 2022West Brom 1–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 20 February 2021Burnley 0–0 West BromPremier League
Leading scorers: West Brom and Burnley
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.