Elche vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Elche, 31% draw, 30% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Elche at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Real Sociedad
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 6BigasD
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 9E. PonceF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 17JosanM
- 29Ali HouaryF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 18T. LemarM
- 24A. OsorioF
- 5F. RedondoM
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 12J. OchiengM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 14T. KuboF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 22Héctor FortD
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 1Álex RemiroG
Form going into Elche vs Real Sociedad
Elche
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Real Sociedad
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Sociedad
- 7 February 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 7 November 2025Elche 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 19 March 2023Real Sociedad 2–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 27 August 2022Elche 0–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 April 2022Elche 1–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Sociedad
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad won 3–2 at Elche. The model had leaned towards a win for Elche at 39% and given a win for Real Sociedad 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Job Ochieng 11' for Real Sociedad, Yangel Herrera 31' for Real Sociedad, Thomas Lemar 67' for Elche, Fernando Niño Rodríguez 74' for Elche, Luka Sučić 90' for Real Sociedad. Sent off: Jon Martin (Real Sociedad) 64'.