Elche vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Elche, 31% draw, 30% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Elche at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Real Sociedad
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 6BigasD
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 9E. PonceF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 17JosanM
- 29Ali HouaryF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 18T. LemarM
- 24A. OsorioF
- 5F. RedondoM
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 12J. OchiengM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 14T. KuboF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 22Héctor FortD
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 1Álex RemiroG
Form going into Elche vs Real Sociedad
Elche
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
Real Sociedad
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Sociedad
- 7 September 2026Elche 2–3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 7 February 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 7 November 2025Elche 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 19 March 2023Real Sociedad 2–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 27 August 2022Elche 0–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 April 2022Elche 1–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Sociedad
Elche
- Fer Niño3 goals
Real Sociedad
- L. Sučić2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.