Getafe vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Getafe 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Getafe, 31% draw, 27% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Getafe at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Getafe vs Celta Vigo
Line-ups
- 13David SoriaG
- 17Kiko FemeníaD
- 8N. GudeljD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 24Z. RomeroD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 23O. MangalaM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 10M. SatrianoF
- 26J. ValouD
- 30O. LopezM
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 3DavinchiD
- 15S. BoselliD
- 20Iván AzónF
- 27Ebrahima DrammehF
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 13I. RaduG
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 39J. El AbdellaouiM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 24C. DriouechF
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 17Javi RuedaD
- 19W. SwedbergM
Form going into Getafe vs Celta Vigo
Getafe
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
- L1-2away to FK Partizan27 August 2026
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
- W3-1FK Partizan20 August 2026
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
What these results say
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Celta Vigo
- 1 February 2026Getafe 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 17 August 2025Celta Vigo 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 May 2025Getafe 1–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 4 November 2024Celta Vigo 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 11 February 2024Getafe 3–2 Celta VigoLa Liga
The result against the call
Getafe and Celta Vigo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Getafe at 42% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Martin Satriano 21' for Getafe, Carl Starfelt 57' for Celta Vigo. Sent off: Zaid Romero (Getafe) 67'.
How the call on Getafe v Celta Vigo has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Getafe's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Getafe win42%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Celta Vigo win27%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.