Estoril vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estoril 0-0 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Estoril, 28% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Estoril at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estoril vs Arouca
Line-ups
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Isma SierraD
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 7André LacximicantM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 98Fabrício GarciaM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 17PeixinhoF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 43fletcher loweG
- 16M. TurkG
- 80Luís Maria Viegas Abreu Campos GomesM
- 35S. AmissahD
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 9A. CamblanM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 1J. VinarčíkG
Form going into Estoril vs Arouca
Estoril
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
- L0-2Rio Ave22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
Arouca
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Guimaraes8 August 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Estoril conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Estoril had two goals or fewer.
- Arouca won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arouca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Arouca
- 6 April 2026Arouca 3–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 7 November 2025Estoril 4–3 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 16 March 2025Arouca 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2024Estoril 4–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 20 January 2024Estoril 1–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estoril and Arouca
Estoril
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estoril and Arouca drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Estoril at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.