Espanyol vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Espanyol 1-1 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Espanyol, 29% draw, 26% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Espanyol at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Espanyol vs Sevilla
Line-ups
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 14Unai NúñezD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 24T. DolanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 17Jofre CarrerasF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 32José ÁngelD
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12A. SanganteD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 30Miguel ÁngelF
- 9R. UreF
- 21C. EjukeF
- 14Manu BuenoM
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
Form going into Espanyol vs Sevilla
Espanyol
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Sevilla
- 9 May 2026Sevilla 2–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 November 2025Espanyol 2–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Sevilla 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 25 October 2024Espanyol 0–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 May 2023Sevilla 3–2 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Sevilla
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Espanyol and Sevilla drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Espanyol at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Stassin 85' for Sevilla, Marcos Fernández 90+8' for Espanyol. Sent off: Arouna Sangante (Sevilla) 56'.
How the call on Espanyol v Sevilla has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Espanyol's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Espanyol win45%▲ +4
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Sevilla win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.