Espanyol vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Espanyol 1-1 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Espanyol, 29% draw, 26% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Espanyol at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Espanyol vs Sevilla
Line-ups
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 14Unai NúñezD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 24T. DolanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 17Jofre CarrerasF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 32José ÁngelD
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 12A. SanganteD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 30Miguel ÁngelF
- 9R. UreF
- 21C. EjukeF
- 14Manu BuenoM
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
Form going into Espanyol vs Sevilla
Espanyol
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
Sevilla
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Espanyol | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Sevilla
- 6 September 2026Espanyol 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 9 May 2026Sevilla 2–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 24 November 2025Espanyol 2–1 SevillaLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Sevilla 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 25 October 2024Espanyol 0–2 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 May 2023Sevilla 3–2 EspanyolLa Liga
Leading scorers: Espanyol and Sevilla
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández6 goals
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.