Malaga vs Levante La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 0-0 Levante.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Malaga, 28% draw, 34% Levante — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Malaga at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Levante
Line-ups
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 12José SalinasD
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 10David LarrubiaF
- 9ChupeF
- 19Juan CruzF
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 3PugaD
- 5Álex PastorD
- 11Joaquín MuñozF
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 2J. CajusteM
- 13M. RyanG
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 4DelaD
- 2A. MandiD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 18E. BardeliM
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiF
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 24T. FernándezF
- 27Paco CortésF
- 22J. ToljanD
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 17Víctor GarcíaD
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 3IfeanyiIfeanyi NdukweD
- 10P. RatkovF
- 6RequeM
- 33Marc Santos GavilánD
Form going into Malaga vs Levante
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Levante
All competitions we cover
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
- L0-3away to Espanyol16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Levante
- 8 February 2025Malaga 1–1 LevanteSegunda División
- 27 November 2024Levante 4–2 MalagaSegunda División
- 17 March 2023Malaga 0–0 LevanteSegunda División
- 4 December 2022Levante 1–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 19 April 2018Levante 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Levante
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Malaga and Levante drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Malaga at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Malaga v Levante has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Malaga's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Malaga win38%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Levante win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.