Valencia vs Barcelona La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Valencia 0-5 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Valencia, 28% draw, 43% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valencia vs Barcelona
Line-ups
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 18PepeluD
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 27David OtorbiM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 15A. DiengM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 5César TárregaD
- 39R. SatoM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 14José GayàD
- 31Rodrigo GamónM
- 10H. ElliottM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 12X. EspartD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 17A. GordonF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 29H. AbdelkarimF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 2João CanceloD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 6GaviM
- 23J. KoundéD
Form going into Valencia vs Barcelona
Valencia
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
- L0-1Real Betis25 August 2026
Barcelona
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valencia vs Barcelona
- 6 September 2026Valencia 0–5 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 23 May 2026Valencia 3–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 14 September 2025Barcelona 6–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 6 February 2025Valencia 0–5 BarcelonaCopa del Rey
- 26 January 2025Barcelona 7–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 17 August 2024Valencia 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Valencia and Barcelona
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.