Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Referee: Joshua Kuipers
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Almere City FC 6-1 Helmond Sport.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% Almere City FC, 19% draw, 13% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Almere City FC 2.60, Helmond Sport 0.89.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

55%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 10%2-1 9%3-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Almere City FC99%Draw1%Helmond Sport0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽James Lawrenceassist: Marley Dors
24'
⚽Marley Dorsassist: Jamie Jacobs
26'
⚽Ferdy Druijfassist: Martin Jean Wasinski
42'
45'
🔁Dean·Huibertsout: Mauro Lenaerts
Joey Jacobs
50'
🔁Jamie Jacobsout: H. el Dahri
64'
🔁Ferdy Druijfout: Bas Huisman
65'
🔁Byron Burgeringout: Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp
65'
🔁James Lawrenceout: Damian van Bruggen
74'
76'
Brian Koglin
⚽H. el Dahriassist: Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp
79'
🔁Joey Jacobsout: E.van de Blaak
80'
81'
🔁Labinot Bajramiout: Kiton Ekoli
⚽Bas Huisman (pen)
86'
87'
🔁Rayen van Breeout: Flor Van Den Eynden
90'
⚽Mauro Lenaertsassist: Flor Van Den Eynden
⚽Marley Dorsassist: H. el Dahri
90+3'

Match stats — Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

62%Possession38%
28Shots9
8On target2
9Corners4
3.13xG0.92

Goals against chances

Almere City FC6 from 3.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
Helmond Sport1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Almere City FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Wessel SpeelG
  • 2M. WasinskiD
  • 3J. JacobsD
  • 4J. LawrenceD
  • 5T. BijleveldD
  • 14M. HoedemakersM
  • 8M. de HaanM
  • 7B. BurgeringM
  • 10J. JacobsM
  • 11M. DorsM
  • 9F. DruijfF
Substitutes
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 6E. CornelisseM
  • 16Tiziano vianelloD
  • 19Olivier de NijsM
  • 44D. van BruggenD
  • 22E. van de BlaakD
  • 30J. van der WiltG
  • 26Twan·Van Der ZeeuwD
  • 20J. KalisvaartM
Coach: Anoush Dastgir
Helmond Sport 4-1-3-2
  • 1M. BergsenG
  • 2R. van BreeD
  • 4B. KoglinD
  • 43T. LandheerD
  • 5T. PollD
  • 14Lovro GoličM
  • 44Xander van der VeldeM
  • 6M. LudwigM
  • 10D. HuibertsM
  • 34T. EssakkatiF
  • 9L. BajramiF
Substitutes
  • 21Wessel van der HeijdenG
  • 23Ward van SleeuwenG
  • 3F. Van Den EyndenD
  • 35N. MeissnerF
  • 94Mauro LenaertsF
  • 47Dayen GeertsM
  • 30K. EkoliF
  • 22A. DizdarevićM
Coach: Frédéric Frans

Form going into Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-1away to Jong AZ6 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie

  • L2-3FC Volendam6 November 2026
  • W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
  • L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
  • L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Almere City FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.
  • Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Helmond Sport failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Helmond Sport scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131
18Helmond Sport153392637-1112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

  • 13 February 2026Almere City FC 0–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 3 October 2025Helmond Sport 2–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 17 February 2023Almere City FC 0–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 2 September 2022Helmond Sport 3–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 11 March 2022Almere City FC 3–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 1 November 2021Helmond Sport 1–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Almere City FC and Helmond Sport

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Helmond Sport

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 5.2% chance of the title and Helmond Sport 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almere City FC a 5.4% chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season: 6.0% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Helmond Sport the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.8% going in: 27.1% after a win, 38.5% after a draw, 41.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.9%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Almere City FC Helmond Sport
0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.39 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.16
2.60 Model expected goals (this match) 0.89

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Almere City FC against 0.89 for Helmond Sport. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.16 for Helmond Sport.

Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.15 for Helmond Sport.

How the model reaches 68% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Almere City FC's ratings add 11 points and Helmond Sport's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 68%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Almere City FC's ratings56%+11
  5. Helmond Sport's ratings68%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.