De Graafschap
vs
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: De Graafschap 1-2 FC OSS.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% De Graafschap, 29% draw, 29% FC OSS — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.44, FC OSS 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Model insights: De Graafschap vs FC OSS
Has the model earned this number?
De Graafschap at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — De Graafschap vs FC OSS
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. WieggersG
- 2J. WieckhoffD
- 3R. BesselinkD
- 15T. KokD
- 5L. SchoppemaD
- 6C. LeemansM
- 7Bjorn van ZijlM
- 8D. WarmerdamM
- 23M. DiemersM
- 16N. MartensM
- 10F. de JongF
- 4J. HardemanD
- 31Sam BouwmanG
- 14Gijs BolkD
- 27N. Ahmeti-GraincaM
- 33R. JonkersG
- 9J. KaniaF
- 17N. KanindaF
- 40Kyano KwintF
- 21K. SymonsD
- 1M. HavekotteG
- 12A. HenryD
- 14M. MarianiD
- 23D. VianelloD
- 26Julian KuijpersD
- 10R. van der VenneM
- 8M. EsajasM
- 11J. MathieuM
- 27M. de LannoyF
- 9Andy VisserF
- 17M. HinokeF
- 5Jafar Howard BynoeM
- 21Thomas CoxD
- 99S. DoucouréF
- 22Mert ErkanF
- 6M. HoremansM
- 18K. LubranoF
- 33L. ZonneveldD
- 16D. RemieG
- 19F. NsingiF
Form going into De Graafschap vs FC OSS
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to FC Volendam30 October 2026
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Waalwijk6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
- D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
What these results say
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for De Graafschap.
- FC OSS did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC OSS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | De Graafschap | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 | FC OSS | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs FC OSS
- 20 December 2025FC OSS 2–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 18 October 2025De Graafschap 1–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 16 March 2025FC OSS 0–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2024De Graafschap 4–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 29 October 2024De Graafschap 4–1 FC OSSKNVB Beker
- 1 March 2024De Graafschap 2–1 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: De Graafschap and FC OSS
De Graafschap
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC OSS (14th, with De Graafschap 16th), while our numbers lean to De Graafschap. De Graafschap rate 0.54 in attack and 1.77 in defence, FC OSS 0.52 and 1.64 (lower is better in defence), so De Graafschap have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave De Graafschap a 19.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 23.5% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 13.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.9%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For FC OSS the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.9% going in: 10.5% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for De Graafschap against 1.11 for FC OSS. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.64 for FC OSS.
How the model reaches 42% for De Graafschap to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for De Graafschap to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, De Graafschap's ratings change nothing and FC OSS's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- De Graafschap's ratings43%±0
- FC OSS's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.