9 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

Barcelos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: GIL Vicente 1-0 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% GIL Vicente, 23% draw, 25% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts GIL Vicente at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GIL Vicente97%Draw3%Rio Ave0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Weversonout: D. Moreira
19'
26'
🔁Ryan Guilhermeout: T. Monteiro
Facundo Cáseres
32'
45+4'
Nelson Abbey
47'
Andreas Ndoj
50'
🔁R. Galcikout: T. Nikitscher
🔁F. Caseresout: Ze Carlos
65'
🔁out: J. Silva
65'
🔁A. Lausenout: H. Hernandez
76'
🔁G. Pinto Martinsout: T. Toure
77'
82'
🔁J. Blesaout: M. Vrousai
83'
🔁D. Nascimentoout: J. Brabec
83'
🔁Diogo Bezerraout: D. Spikic
85'
Jakub Brabec
⚽H. Hernandez (pen)
87'
90+1'
Georgios Liavas

Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

64%Possession36%
12Shots6
4On target2
5Corners2
1.48xG0.31

Goals against chances

GIL Vicente1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rio Ave0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucaoG
  • 47R. EsgaioD
  • 4M. ElimbiD
  • 39J. BuatuD
  • 26WeversonD
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 5F. CaseresM
  • 11J. FernandesM
  • 10S. GarciaM
  • 20G. Pinto MartinsM
  • 29Carlos EduardoF
Substitutes
  • 1A. PicornellG
  • 44T. Ferreira
  • 6Ze CarlosM
  • 99M. KabaF
  • 3A. EspigaresD
  • 45D. MoreiraD
  • 27A. MoreiraF
  • 2J. SilvaD
  • 23H. HernandezF
Coach: Luis Pinto
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 5A. NtoiM
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 8Ryan GuilhermeM
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 25Rafael LobatoF
  • 77D. SpikicF
  • 9T. MonteiroF
  • 63J. LombotoD
  • 79M. PatricioF
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9GIL Vicente52124407
16Rio Ave6114514-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

  • 9 August 2026GIL Vicente 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 3 May 2026Rio Ave 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 20 December 2025GIL Vicente 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 2 August 2025GIL Vicente 3–1 Rio AveFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2025Rio Ave 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 6 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and Rio Ave

GIL Vicente

  • Héctor Hernández3 goals1 assists

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.