ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Hammam-Sousse 0-2 US Ben Guerdane.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% ES Hammam-Sousse, 27% draw, 45% US Ben Guerdane — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
US Ben Guerdane at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 2N. El Beji
- 3G. Abderrazzak
- 4R. Ouni
- 6Figo
- 11M. A. Jarraya
- 13M. Sassi
- 17R. Abdallah
- 20M. Baayou
- 29M. A. Helal
- 30M. Hazgui
- 33T. Ben Zitoun
- 8A. Hssine
- 14R. Aissaoui
- 15A. Moataz
- 22M. Ben Salah
- 24O. Martin
- 25O. Tenguiano
- 32C. Nasreli
- 34I. Houli
- 10F. Ouji
- 31L. Hammami
- 4P. Agbanou
- 25S. Harrabi
- 20J. Bouabcha
- 26A. Amri
- 30D. Oboh
- 8M. Camara
- 7A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche
- 40A. Ben Mcharek
- 10G. Ayadi
- 33N. Chachia
- 16M. Karkouba
- 15I. Touis
- 14M. H. Yeken
- 6G. Mounguide
- 19A. Bouatay
- 12F. Timoumi
- 27W. Salhi
- 21F. Tayechi
- 9A. Diakite
Form going into ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
ES Hammam-Sousse
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to ES Zarzis11 October 2026
- L1-3Stade Tunisien12 September 2026
- L0-1away to ES Metlaoui6 September 2026
US Ben Guerdane
Ligue 1
- W2-1Club Africain10 October 2026
- W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
- D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
- 10 April 2022Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US BEN GuerdaneLigue 1
- 18 November 2021US BEN Guerdane 2–1 Hammam-SousseLigue 1
The result against the call
US Ben Guerdane won 2–0 at ES Hammam-Sousse. The model had made a win for US Ben Guerdane its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Ayadi (penalty) 29' for US Ben Guerdane, 75' for US Ben Guerdane.
How the call on ES Hammam-Sousse v US Ben Guerdane has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is US Ben Guerdane's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- ES Hammam-Sousse win28%▼ −5
- Draw27%▼ −2
- US Ben Guerdane win45%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.