18 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

Le Havre vs Auxerre Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Océane, Le Havre
Referee: Eric Wattellier
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Le Havre, 29% draw, 30% Auxerre — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Le Havre at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Havre0%Draw1%Auxerre99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
⚽Danny Namasoassist: Kevin Danois
43'
Clément Akpa
50'
Naouirou Ahamada
M. Ndiaye
54'
61'
⚽Danny Namasoassist: Romain Faivre
🔁Sota Nakamuraout: Rayan Fofana
62'
🔁Josh Majaout: Hakim Dongopandji
62'
🔁M. Ndiayeout: Enzo Koffi
62'
⚽Rayan Fofanaassist: Hakim Dongopandji
66'
80'
⚽Romain Faivreassist: Danny Namaso
82'
🔁Naouirou Ahamadaout: Arthur Piedfort
🔁Djibril Ouziadout: Kaito Mizuta
84'
🔁Rassoul Ndiayeout: Guy-Noël Zohouri
85'
89'
🔁Lamine Syout: Elikya Legros

Match stats — Le Havre vs Auxerre

52%Possession48%
15Shots13
6On target6
7Corners4
1.49xG2.79

Goals against chances

Le Havre1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth
Auxerre3 from 2.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Le Havre 4-3-3
  • 93G. GallonG
  • 20D. OuziadD
  • 6J. MwangaD
  • 5A. ToubaD
  • 97M. NdiayeD
  • 14R. NdiayeM
  • 26S. EbonogM
  • 7A. RichardsonM
  • 30S. NakamuraF
  • 9J. MajaF
  • 25M. SamattaF
Substitutes
  • 24G. ZohouriM
  • 27E. Koffi VinetteF
  • 23V. SassoD
  • 78D. MosengoM
  • 17K. MizutaM
  • 38R. FofanaF
  • 44I. BounebM
  • 16A. BodartG
  • 33Hakim DongopandjiF
Coach: D. Digard
Auxerre 3-4-2-1
  • 1P. NardiG
  • 15C. MakossoD
  • 4A. TuanzebeD
  • 92C. AkpaD
  • 27L. SyM
  • 8N. AhamadaM
  • 5K. DanoisM
  • 22F. OppegårdM
  • 21R. FaivreM
  • 10D. NamasoM
  • 9C. ArcherF
Substitutes
  • 77Aristide ZossouM
  • 46A. PiedfortM
  • 35E. LegrosD
  • 17P. EkwahM
  • 34L. DioubateM
  • 23M. DiopG
  • 20S. DiomandéD
  • 44Mamoudou CissokhoF
  • 47Youssef KhouddaF
Coach: W. Still

Form going into Le Havre vs Auxerre

Le Havre

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026

Auxerre

Ligue 1

  • L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Le Havre10028922-132
14Auxerre103161324-1110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Le Havre vs Auxerre

  • 5 April 2026Le Havre 1–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 26 October 2025Auxerre 0–1 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 4 May 2025Auxerre 1–2 Le HavreLigue 1
  • 1 September 2024Le Havre 3–1 AuxerreLigue 1
  • 7 May 2022Le Havre 1–2 AuxerreLigue 2
  • 21 December 2021Auxerre 2–3 Le HavreLigue 2

The full Le Havre vs Auxerre record →

Leading scorers: Le Havre and Auxerre

Le Havre

GoalsAssists

  • J. Maja40

Auxerre

GoalsAssists

  • C. Archer60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Auxerre won 3–1 at Le Havre. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Havre at 41% and given a win for Auxerre 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Danny Namaso 40' for Auxerre, Danny Namaso 61' for Auxerre, Rayan Fofana 66' for Le Havre, Romain Faivre 80' for Auxerre. On expected goals it finished 1.49–2.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Havre a 45.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.5% after a win, 47.0% after a draw, 53.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.0%, 7.7 points higher than before the match.

For Auxerre the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.5% going in: 21.3% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Le Havre v Auxerre has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Le Havre's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Le Havre win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Auxerre win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.