18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Angers vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Referee: Jeremie Pignard
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Angers 2-5 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Angers, 26% draw, 50% Marseille — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Marseille at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Angers0%Draw1%Marseille99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lillian Rao-Lisoa
14'
37'
⚽Himad Abdelliassist: Timothy Weah
43'
⚽Nouhoum Kamissokoassist: Emerson Palmieri
🔁Louis Moutonout: Prosper Peter
57'
59'
⚽Amine Gouiri (pen)
60'
⚽Amine Gouiri
60'
🔁Geoffrey Kondogbiaout: Nayef Aguerd
Emmanuel Biumla
68'
🔁Emmanuel Biumlaout: Joseph Kalulu
72'
🔁Jim Allevinahout: Harouna Djibirin
72'
74'
Tochukwu Nnadi
⚽Amine El Ouazzani (pen)
75'
80'
🔁Nouhoum Kamissokoout: Angel Gomes
80'
🔁Himad Abdelliout: Keyliane Abdallah
83'
⚽Amine Haritassist: Tochukwu Nnadi
85'
⚽Igor Paixãoassist: Timothy Weah
🔁Amine El Ouazzaniout: Bané Diatta
89'
🔁Amine Sbaïout: Anthony Bermont
89'
90'
🔁Tochukwu Nnadiout: Neal Maupay
90'
🔁Amine Haritout: Ulisses Garcia

Match stats — Angers vs Marseille

42%Possession58%
11Shots21
3On target8
2Corners5
2.06xG2.77

Goals against chances

Angers2 from 2.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
Marseille5 from 2.77 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Angers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Anthony LopesG
  • 2C. ArcusD
  • 24E. BiumlaD
  • 34M. GernigonD
  • 27L. Rao-LisoaD
  • 14Y. BelkhdimM
  • 8B. van den BoomenM
  • 18J. AllevinahM
  • 6L. MoutonM
  • 10A. SbaïM
  • 19A. El OuazzaniF
Substitutes
  • 9P. PeterF
  • 37Jules BouffandeauM
  • 26A. BermontM
  • 36Bane DiattaM
  • 11Djibirin HarounaF
  • 17J. KaluluD
  • 20Marius LouërD
  • 7U. SimbakoliF
  • 40Oumar PonaG
Coach: S. Gilli
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 19G. KondogbiaD
  • 33EmersonD
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  • 6T. NnadiM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 74K. BezahafD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 11N. MaupayF
  • 43T. MmadiF
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Angers vs Marseille

Angers

Ligue 1

  • L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026

Marseille

Ligue 1

  • W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Angers10226919-108
4Marseille106042214+818

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Angers vs Marseille

  • 17 January 2026Angers 2–5 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 29 October 2025Marseille 2–2 AngersLigue 1
  • 9 February 2025Angers 0–2 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 4 October 2024Marseille 1–1 AngersLigue 1
  • 14 May 2023Marseille 3–1 AngersLigue 1
  • 30 September 2022Angers 0–3 MarseilleLigue 1

The full Angers vs Marseille record →

Leading scorers: Angers and Marseille

Angers

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Marseille

GoalsAssists

  • A. Gouiri73
  • A. Harit31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Marseille won 5–2 at Angers. The model had made a win for Marseille its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lillian Rao-Lisoa 14' for Angers, Himad Abdelli 37' for Marseille, Nouhoum Kamissoko 43' for Marseille, Amine Gouiri 60' for Marseille, Amine El Ouazzani (penalty) 75' for Angers, Amine Harit 83' for Marseille, Igor Paixão 85' for Marseille. On expected goals it finished 2.06–2.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Angers a 49.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.5% after a win, 50.0% after a draw, 53.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Marseille the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.3% going in: 23.3% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.3%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Angers v Marseille has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Marseille's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Angers win24%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Marseille win50%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.