ES Setif vs Témouchent Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: ES Setif 1-2 Témouchent.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% ES Setif, 26% draw, 18% Témouchent — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
ES Setif at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1A. Oukidja
- 23S. Bouteldja
- 13M. Omfia
- 19A. Khemaissia
- 22D. Hassen Khodja
- 12C. Lakehal
- 17M. Boukerma
- 26R. Boumechra
- 10L. Tabti
- 7M. Belkhir
- 9R. Benayad
- 36M. Sadaoui
- 15A. A. Bouneqab
- 30Z. Trad
- 25S. Akkal
- 29M. Salifu
- 3A. Naim
- 24I. Bouchagoura
- 8M. Hamek
- 20M. Zerrouki
- 1F. Boukerrit
- 2M. Larbi
- 4I. Chahrour
- 9M. Zaalouk
- 11M. H. Hedroug
- 12R. Bounoua
- 14B. Boubaker
- 15K. Baaziz
- 21A. Meddah
- 25H. Boutamina
- 26I. Saihi
- 3G. Wael
- 13N. Merdja
- 16A. Morcely
- 17E. K. Khodja
- 20M. Itim
- 22S. A. Aissaoui
- 23A. Belkacemi
- 24S. Safaga
- 27M. Toumi
Form going into ES Setif vs Témouchent
ES Setif
Ligue 1
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
Témouchent
Ligue 1
- D1-1ASO Chlef18 October 2026
- L0-2MB Rouisset14 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ES Setif | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Témouchent | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Témouchent won 2–1 at ES Setif. The model had leaned towards a win for ES Setif at 56% and given a win for Témouchent 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: M. Zaalouk 15' for Témouchent, B. Boubaker 83' for Témouchent, R. Benayad 90+3' for ES Setif.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave ES Setif a 7.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.2% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.
For Témouchent the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 64.5% going in: 53.2% after a win, 64.1% after a draw, 67.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.2%, 11.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on ES Setif v Témouchent has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 56% / 26% / 18%: the biggest move is ES Setif's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- ES Setif win56%▲ +10
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Témouchent win18%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.