24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia 1. Division prediction & result

Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg
Referee: J. Bogelund
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Esbjerg 2-1 FC Fredericia.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Esbjerg, 29% draw, 46% FC Fredericia — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Fredericia at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Esbjerg96%Draw4%FC Fredericia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

N. Strunck
14'
🔁P. Bjurout: N. Strandby
38'
51'
L. Dauerhoj
57'
⚽A. Bondergaard (pen)
J. Ampofo
59'
🔁P. Tjornelundout: J. Lucena
62'
🔁A. Ahmadout: M. Hansen
62'
⚽M. Hansenassist: N. Strunck
64'
⚽J. Ampofo
67'
68'
🔁W. Madsenout: A. Pyndt
68'
🔁D. Haarboout: F. Winther
68'
🔁B. Bang-Kittilsenout: C. Jorgensen
N. Strandby
77'
🔁N. Strunckout: L. Vigen
77'
🔁M. Brajanacout: A. Sonderskov
77'
83'
🔁A. Nygaardout: E. Hansborg
88'
🔁J. Lindekildeout: N. Thomsen

Line-ups

Esbjerg
Coach: Hjalte Norregaard
FC Fredericia
Coach: Michael Hansen

Form going into Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia

Esbjerg

1. Division

  • D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
  • D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026

FC Fredericia

1. Division

  • W3-0Hobro17 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Esbjerg143561724-714
3FC Fredericia146532110+1123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia

  • 5 September 2026FC Fredericia 1–0 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 18 July 2026Esbjerg 0–1 FC FredericiaFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 April 2025FC Fredericia 1–1 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 22 April 2025Esbjerg 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 19 October 2024Esbjerg 0–3 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 11 August 2024FC Fredericia 4–0 Esbjerg1. Division

The result against the call

Esbjerg beat FC Fredericia 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Fredericia at 46% and given a win for Esbjerg 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Bondergaard (penalty) 57' for FC Fredericia, M. Hansen 64' for Esbjerg, J. Ampofo 67' for Esbjerg.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esbjerg a 68.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 57.5% after a win, 69.6% after a draw, 75.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 11.3 points lower than before the match.

For FC Fredericia the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 20.2% going in: 25.4% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Esbjerg v FC Fredericia has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 25% / 29% / 46%: the biggest move is Esbjerg's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Esbjerg win25%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +3
  3. FC Fredericia win46%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.