Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lokomotiv Sofia, 28% draw, 29% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv Sofia at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Line-ups
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 6EirôD
- 3K. KostovD
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 5E. DostM
- 31K. StanoevM
- 29A. AralicaF
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 71N. PenevF
- 7S. DelevF
- 8I. YordanovM
- 11A. TaouiF
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 18Joyce Kati KatulondiF
- 44B. KatsarovM
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 23O. OdukoD
- 94M. OrlinovG
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 4I. GoranovF
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 36M. StoevD
- 3S. SanyangD
- 12I. YurukovM
- 10J. GallegosM
- 7R. TsonevM
- 79M. PetkovF
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 98L. VasilevG
- 8A. StoyanovM
- 17S. MechevF
- 6A. KichukovM
- 90F. GigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
- 11M. AchkovD
- 24M. SmolenskiM
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
Botev Vratsa
First League
- L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
- 5 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 14 April 2026Botev Vratsa 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 8 November 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 7 May 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 14 February 2025Botev Vratsa 0–3 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 23 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Botev Vratsa
No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jose Gallegos 42' for Botev Vratsa, Ante Aralica 55' for Lokomotiv Sofia.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv Sofia a 27.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.9% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 37.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For Botev Vratsa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.2% going in: 22.3% after a win, 34.8% after a draw, 42.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 34.8%.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Vratsa has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Botev Vratsa's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Lokomotiv Sofia win43%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Botev Vratsa win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.