Hvidovre vs HB Koge 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Hvidovre 2-2 HB Koge.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Hvidovre, 24% draw, 20% HB Koge — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hvidovre at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1F. Djukic
- 77A. Njai
- 15A. Iljazovski
- 25M. Kiilerich
- 23N. Clausen
- 22N. Huygevelde
- 7L. Prip
- 8O. Jensen
- 14O. Kjaergaard
- 24E. Aby
- 11D. Bagou
- 29A. Ravn
- 2D. Stenderup
- 3O. Jensen Juul
- 6A. Okosun
- 18M. Knudsen
- 4Z. Aliji
- 10A. Smed
- 26R. Risnaes
- 19A. Johansen
- 1N. Sommergaard
- 23M. Westergren
- 22M. Jakobsen
- 2L. Bust
- 4S. Hald
- 10C. Jensen Tue
- 7M. Jensen
- 6R. Brodersen
- 25F. Isaki
- 9T. Thomsen
- 11M. Warming
- 16C. Mols
- 14V. Sorensen
- 28G. Larsen
- 17L. Achton
- 8M. Romer
- 21N. Jakobsen
- 19E. Semovski
- 27N. Stolshoj
Form going into Hvidovre vs HB Koge
Hvidovre
1. Division
- W1-0Hillerød18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vejle9 October 2026
HB Koge
1. Division
- L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 32 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hvidovre vs HB Koge
- 15 August 2026HB Koge 0–2 Hvidovre1. Division
- 3 July 2026Hvidovre 1–0 HB KogeFriendlies Clubs
- 23 October 2025Hvidovre 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 27 September 2025HB Koge 0–2 Hvidovre1. Division
- 29 July 2025Hvidovre 4–3 HB KogeDBU Pokalen
- 8 July 2025Hvidovre 4–2 HB KogeFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Hvidovre and HB Koge drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Hvidovre at 56% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: O. Kjaergaard 43' for Hvidovre, D. Bagou 73' for Hvidovre, E. Semovski 80' for HB Koge, E. Semovski 90' for HB Koge.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hvidovre a 64.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 69.6% after a win, 55.5% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 55.5%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.
For HB Koge the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 48.4% going in: 33.2% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.3%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.