24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Hillerød vs Aalborg 1. Division prediction & result

Helsingor Stadion, Helsingor
Referee: J. Nielsen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Hillerød 2-1 Aalborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hillerød, 28% draw, 30% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hillerød at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Arndal
4'
10'
K. Normann
W. Glindtvad
12'
21'
⚽V. Mollerassist: M. Kubel
H. Derrar
55'
🔁T. Arndalout: M. Munck
60'
🔁B. Kucukylidizout: M. Mouritz
60'
60'
🔁K. Normannout: W. Thomsen
60'
🔁M. Tielemansout: A. Hapnes
H. Sulemana
63'
🔁S. Opokuout: R. Corlu
67'
🔁H. Sulemanaout: P. Kallsberg
67'
77'
🔁V. Mollerout: M. Kaasa
77'
🔁J. Adedejiout: K. John
⚽F. Borsting (OG)
79'
80'
F. Borsting
🔁M. Juloout: A. Hoyer
81'
82'
E. Makolli
84'
🔁F. Borstingout: J. Hvistendahl

Line-ups

Hillerød
Coach: Christian Lonstrup

Form going into Hillerød vs Aalborg

Hillerød

1. Division

  • L0-1away to Hvidovre18 October 2026
  • L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026

Aalborg

1. Division

  • L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Hillerød144371821-315
6Aalborg143741719-216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hillerød vs Aalborg

  • 24 July 2026Aalborg 1–0 Hillerød1. Division
  • 27 February 2026Aalborg 3–3 Hillerød1. Division
  • 26 July 2025Hillerød 2–2 Aalborg1. Division
  • 16 March 2024Hillerød 1–2 Aalborg1. Division
  • 27 August 2023Aalborg 3–0 Hillerød1. Division

The result against the call

Hillerød beat Aalborg 2–1. The model had made a win for Hillerød its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Arndal 4' for Hillerød, V. Moller 21' for Aalborg, F. Borsting (own goal) 79' for Hillerød.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hillerød a 51.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.1% after a win, 55.7% after a draw, 63.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 11.2 points lower than before the match.

For Aalborg the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 48.0% going in: 62.4% after a win, 46.3% after a draw, 38.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.7%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hillerød v Aalborg has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Hillerød's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Hillerød win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Aalborg win30%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.