Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Aubagne 0-1 Le Puy Foot.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Aubagne, 28% draw, 39% Le Puy Foot — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Le Puy Foot at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1I. Toure
- 2A. Sadi
- 5R. Doucoure
- 26M. Nehari
- 23Y. Aradj
- 19B. Doukansy
- 37A. Faiz
- 31Y. M'Changama
- 18A. Oudjani
- 10K. Cisse
- 17J. Porsan Clemente
- 16T. Moreira
- 4R. Valme
- 35I. Diakite
- 22W. Bouaziz
- 27J. Sahraoui
- 11B. Tafni
- 6A. Tafni
- 1M. Carvalho
- 12S. Lebouath
- 2Vinicius Gomes
- 19T. Ghalem
- 3E. Seidou
- 13A. Fatahine
- 10R. Xhemo
- 18A. Gauthier
- 21L. Baret
- 17P. Nsingi
- 9M. Faty
- 40A. Roperti
- 5M. Dembele
- 6W. Zahibo
- 27I. Ducourtioux
- 11M. Emmanuel
- 14M. Mazaudier
Form going into Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot
Aubagne
Ligue 3
- L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Aubagne | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot
- 10 April 2026Le Puy Foot 1–2 AubagneLigue 3
- 7 November 2025Aubagne 1–4 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 20 April 2024Le Puy Foot 1–2 AubagneNational 2 - Group A
- 2 December 2023Aubagne 0–0 Le Puy FootNational 2 - Group A
- 16 November 2013Aubagne 2–0 Le Puy FootCoupe de France
The result against the call
Le Puy Foot won 1–0 at Aubagne. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Le Puy Foot at 39%. The goal: W. Zahibo 64' for Le Puy Foot.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aubagne a 47.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.7% after a win, 47.5% after a draw, 53.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.6%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.
For Le Puy Foot the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.7% going in: 23.5% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aubagne v Le Puy Foot has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Le Puy Foot's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Aubagne win33%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Le Puy Foot win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.